My personal request of Meryl Dorey

Posted in Anti-Vaccination Lobby, AVN, Health, Immunisation, Media, Meryl Dorey, Scam, Science, Skeptic by Paul Gallagher

We (antivaccination lobbyists) are the real Australian skeptics

Meryl Dorey Jan. 4th, 2012

As many of you may have noticed, the rapidly rising pertussis epidemic in W.A. was reported by the ABC today.

This predictably sent Meryl Dorey of the AVN into histrionics. One of her ridiculous claims is that pertussis has increased “10,000%” with a 25% increase in vaccination. If you choose the figure of 332 from the very first year – 1991 – of compulsory reporting (which actually reflects sloppy reporting, gradual awareness and slow administrative changes) and compare it to today’s epidemic figure as Dorey does, it’s a dodgy trick.

A Stop the AVN member snapped this tweet from a cast iron flying pig that appeared on ABC News Breakfast

Because the “25% increase” comes from a 70% vaccination coverage in 1991 and a 95% coverage now. Strange, because a decade later in 2001, vaccination was only 70.6% and the figure of notified cases is 9,541. Sure we do have an epidemic figure for 2011 of over 36,000. But choosing a different year shows an increase of 3.8 times – not 10,000% – despite almost an identical increase in childhood vaccination.

I’ve laid it out all below. The entire method Meryl uses, and offered it back to her as actually showing a decrease of over 50% in 6 years. It’s her technique using her data sources. It’s rather silly as one cannot compare unrelated data sets. But in an attempt to draw some sense from Meryl on a fairly clear point I’ve (yet again) worked through the figures to seek a reply.

Meryl Dorey’s extraordinary claim about ABC journalistic integrity

I posted it twice today on the ABC News Breakfast Facebook page and also on Stop AVN. No “coward” stuff as Meryl alleged to Tiga Bayles. No “hiding behind anonymity” as Bayles suggested. No “suppression of free speech”. Just open and honest requests for a reply, based on evidence. Meryl’s claimed forte.

Originally I asked for a point by point response. Yet, I’m asking Meryl now, to respond to just one of my points. Just one. So far, there’s just silence. We shall see.

Summoning help, Dorey writes about: “…the rabid pro-vaxxers who would happily see all of our children dead or injured if they thought it would protect them or their families.”

Above Meryl you write:

…it’s all across Australia – why they chose WA I have no idea? (sic)

Well Meryl, whooping cough in WA has increased by almost 500% since 2009.

ABC News Breakfast

Also Meryl, WA has the lowest rate of child vaccination in the country. According to Julie Leask, senior research fellow at the National Centre for Immunisation Research & Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, “Delay might be due to [WA’s] adolescent vax policy”.

Julie Leask Tweet

As “Australia’s leading vaccination expert” I thought you’d know these things, Meryl.

Anyway, as on Facebook here’s the same request for a reply. All I’ve updated from Facebook is the NNDSS pertussis notification figures accessed now, at time of writing, and changed it to a first person address.

As I stressed Meryl, failure to address this surely indicates admission that your claim on pertussis is false. You may very well believe it, but if so, it must stack up to scrutiny. No agro, no bullying, just a golden opportunity to speak freely. So, excuses to not answer are thin on the ground.

I hope that’s not too annoying and I’d be delighted to have you. Fire when ready….

Here’s the original from Facebook.

Hi Meryl.

Could you address this point by point please. It’s the same post as above, but I reckon it’s about time you helped clear the air. If not, do I assume you agree that your claims on pertussis are invalid?

Thanks very much:

Contrary to your claims, the epidemic began in your backyard with low vaccination rates and spread out from there. From SMH, October 2010:

“The highest rates of so-called “conscientious objectors” to immunisation are in parts of the north coast – such as Byron Bay – where 12 per cent of children born between 2001 and 2007 were never immunised for any condition. […]

An epidemic of whooping cough in 2008 and 2009 began on the north coast. It quickly swept across the state driven by low vaccination rates in some wealthy parts of Sydney. Low-income areas in western Sydney also had less immunisation and were linked to outbreaks, Dr Menzies said.”

Now, let’s debunk your claim of high vaccination rates causally equating to high pertussis infection, using – not other information and techniques – but your actual tables and own technique.

You source your 95% from under 2 year olds in a 2006 table (as per Woodford slides on your blog). Also, here it is – http://i.imgur.com/w9I9g.jpg. This makes up one half of 1/18th of all age groups from your next source, a NNDSS table of whooping cough notifications: http://i.imgur.com/XOrUY.png

These are the 2 tables you sent to the NSW HCCC in September 2009 (see p. 6 http://www.mediafire.com/?dw32azbk97obakm) to whom you made the very same claim, in response to a complaint.

You only quote absolute figures about pertussis after all – not percentages, or age groups, or if a notification is asymptomatic, or was a tourist, or international flight attendant/maritime worker/business traveller/etc.

Here’s the NNDSS age groups showing the highest infection rate is between 40 – 65 years in 2007. Before the epidemic.
http://i.imgur.com/0eGTw.png

Although now, the three age groups up to 14 years show large increases, if we add up the notifications above this we see that most notifications still come from adults who have no immunity. It has waned and they need a booster. Their vaccination (booster) rate is 11.3% – not 95%. We need to increase this by about 7 times to reach herd immunity.
See p. 18 of Adult Immunisation Survey to confirm 11.3%.

You are using “unrelated data”. Just like the rise in driving licences is not causally related to the rise in road trauma, or that the best safety advice (according to your thinking) would thus be to abandon licence testing. You are wrong to quote these NNDSS figures in this way, because we know nothing about their vaccine status or immunity. All we know is that most are adults who have no immunity.

So, in effect they cannot be compared – but for the record I’ll continue on as if they can be compared.

We do know pertussis fatalities occur in the unvaccinated. Vaccinated can of course catch pertussis yet experience far milder symptoms and faster recovery. The claim that vaccination for pertussis is an impervious shield has never been made by health authorities. But the claim that it should be and if not, it’s useless, is being scurrilously made by yourself.

Okay, let’s use your method on another year.

We can see (using the same NNDSS data) that 2007 was the lowest year of infection on record since 1999 – http://i.imgur.com/XOrUY.png. It is also the 5th lowest year since records began.
Many discount the first recording years of 1991 and 1992 as very, very low anomalies that show a slowish start to new legislation requiring reporting of whooping cough. This would make 2007 the 3rd lowest ever. But I’m happy to take the 5th lowest year ever.

Rather different to your claim, no? But from your data source no less.

Now, looking again at your vaccination rate table (http://i.imgur.com/w9I9g.jpg) we see 2001 had only 70.6% vaccination. Infection was 9,541 Aussies. By 2007 – still using both your data tables we see 95% vaccination of babies and 4,864 cases of pertussis (http://i.imgur.com/XOrUY.png).

So, using your “technique” on merely another part of the same NNDSS table we can also claim vaccination more than halved pertussis notifications in a mere 6 years.

Your data, your method, the very same tables you quote from. Why then is this not your message? Why don’t you tell Aussies that these sources show a greater than 50% drop in whooping cough in just 6 years?

Because it’s selective statistical sleight of hand, is it not? We both can’t be right. It’s a simple trick – and I’m arguing that you know it is.

You are intentionally misleading Australians. This is why the NSW HCCC issued a public health warning that you “quote selectively from research to suggest that vaccination may be dangerous.”

Also, it’s strange that you cite 1990 vaccination coverage of 70% vs 2006 coverage of 95%, omitting to say it dipped to 61% in the mid 90’s and had only increased by 0.6% in the 10 years from 1991. Could this be because you want to create an impression? Perhaps.

It’s all in your table. Should you not address all figures? Why do you not address all figures?

Also, a good look at any NNDSS notification table shows rises and falls in infection. Contrary to your claim of a steady increase in infection as vaccine coverage rose, pertussis always rises and falls.

In fact the first 10 years when coverage went from 70% to 61% to 70.6% corresponds to notification levels similar to and greater than the second 10 years (http://i.imgur.com/XOrUY.png).

1997 is almost as high the 2008 epidemic year and vaccination coverage was under 70%. So, again we must ask – are you seeking to create an impression?

Epidemics are a different ball game. Once immunisation fell below a safe level in Byron Bay it took off like lots of little fires in low immunisation areas joining to create a massive bush fire.

So, low immunisation caused this outbreak not any problem with the vaccine. The answer? Get adults immunised and ensure babies get cocooned and immunised ASAP.

There’s nothing to stop me using the very same data and going around saying Australia had one of the lowest pertussis levels since notifications began, until your, Meryl Dorey’s lobbying against vaccination led to the 2008 epidemic (and cite Dr. Menzies, plus news reports etc to back me up).

But science doesn’t make leaps like that. We’d need better research. You really don’t use science, despite boasting of such – just tricks with scientific data hoping nobody will check. Please prove me wrong.

Let’s recap: I’ve used only your tables and your own argument style to a.) debunk your claims on pertussis vaccination = infection, b.) shown how it can be used to show a vaccine induced 50% plus reduction in only 6 years [2001 – 2007] and c.) pointed out some curious gaps in your coverage of the data that don’t seem to support your claims.

I look forward to your reply,

Thank you,

Paul Gallagher

(emailed to Meryl Dorey on Jan. 7th, 2012)

29Dec2011

Vaccination Saves Lives

Posted in Anti-Vaccination Lobby, Denialism, Science by Paul Gallagher

Stop The AVN Media Release

♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣ ♣

Imagine you’re listening to the radio one day and the discussion is on government funding and community education about road fatality and driver education.

A woman is invited to speak. You catch her name as Peryl Clawy. She’s president of The Australian Road Safety Network. Impressive. She claims to be for “informed choice” on your safety as a driver. Her only aim is to educate drivers about driving skill so they can choose what’s best for them and their family. She wants to present both sides of the argument. Sounds great. You pay more attention.

The announcer asks her about the condition of roads and of railway crossings, during peak periods. There’s been a report linking speed, poor road maintenance and traffic jams to accidents on the open road and at crossings. It’s been suggested licencing fees may increase to help cover costs to improve the condition of roads. The woman answers;

“Well, we at the ARSN would take that with a grain of salt. This fee increase – or extortion to keep your licence as we prefer to call it – seems to be just another Big Brother tactic from the government, road authorities and road-way developers to keep drivers under the impression that safer roads save lives. But who did this study, and who paid them? Was it an independent study or by someone associated with road development?

The reality is that study after study shows that dangerous driving on difficult surfaces is an excellent way to improve driving skills, and more to the point we at the ARSN have thousands of reports of people killed and maimed whilst driving on perfect roads, under perfect lighting, in perfect weather conditions whilst under the speed limit. Despite big auto promising to make cars safer we have reports of children decapitated by air bags and adults sustaining crushed ribs and perforated lungs from seat belts, during accidents. The overall effect of all this safety is to deny the body’s natural driving skill from maturing.

Before the road safety industry began these highly lucrative fear campaigns urging people to listen to the police and to these so-called scientists, cars had no seat belts or safety devices and roads were made of dirt and sand. Children were carried on their mothers laps, and windscreens were clean non-toxic glass. Now, we’re trapped behind toxic lamination full of chemicals, that break away and float about the interior of the car causing illness, cancer and failure to thrive in children. They also poison breast milk. Since the baby capsule and booster seat laws came in the number of babies killed in motor vehicle accidents has increased ten fold and babies dying from SIDS in Australia has almost tripled.

I had a mother call me recently saying she picked up her sleeping baby from a capsule one night, placed her in her crib to sleep and the next morning discovered she was dead. Who takes responsibility for this? The baby capsule manufacturers? The road safety authorities? The media who continually hush up these cases? I mean I believe every life lost on the roads is tragic but why are babies who die in a crash whilst sitting on their mother’s laps front page news, and those that die from baby capsule induced SIDS never even reported? Children’s health in all nations with mass production of safer driving practice and so-called better roads is under attack. Chronic disease is at an all time high.

The fatality rate 80 years ago in Australia is a fraction of the total today. When they first made cars they just allowed the public to buy them. Now they fill them with dummies and crash them at full speed recording in detail every bit of damage that can happen to the human body. But do they tell you this when you buy a car? Do they show you a dummy and say, “See. this is what happens when you crash this car wearing all the safety gear”? No, of course not. Back then many drivers didn’t even have licences. More so, look at the percentage of drivers killed on our roads who hold full driving licences. It’s something like 99.99999%. If we look at the rise in licences over the past few generations we also see a steady increase in fatalities. So, it’s clear this licencing system plays a significant role in fatalities. And these aren’t my figures these are the government’s own figures.

We also have thousands of licence induced injuries on record. Humans are born with natural driving skills, just the way we’re born with the ability to walk, but these are trained out of us when we sit for a drivers licence. Now, we’ve been asking the government to run a trial of licenced vs unlicenced drivers with natural driving skills for years now to see whether artificial – or “learned” as they call it – skills are really better than those with natural or “unlearned” skills. But they don’t care. The government just doesn’t care.

So licencing and the teaching of driving skills has never been tested properly. The gold standard of science is the randomised control trial. Yet no studies actually exist that compare unlicenced driver skills in dangerous conditions, vs licenced driver skills in dangerous conditions. People are just expected to follow along and listen to road traffic authorities, ignoring their own instincts along the way. What’s worse is not only is there no evidence licencing doesn’t kill drivers, but they hold off allowing the unlearning of natural skills and the learning of unnatural skills until the late teens.

So the normal skills and curiosity all toddlers and children show as they’re growing is suppressed when it comes to driving a car, when study after study shows that children learn so much from interacting with their environment. We’ve also asked the government to run trials comparing toddlers and children who are allowed to play-drive for a few years with adults who have been forced into the artificially taught skill set, but again the government just doesn’t listen. They obviously just don’t care.

When I arrived in Australia almost 30 years ago there were no boom gates or lights at railway crossings and all the roads were unmade and full of pot holes. But since the bitumen has gone down and crossings have been developed fatalities have slowly increased. Now, we have all these scientists saying if you drive over the speed limit without a seat belt or drive through a railway crossing with flashing lights without looking you could die from it. Well, you didn’t die from it 30 years ago and you’re not going to die from it today.

Plus there’s now hate groups who insist we don’t have the right to say these things, to tell the other side of the story. The Australian skeptics, they set up a group call Stop The Australian Road Safety Network and they say that we don’t have free speech in Australia and that you have no right to get access to both sides of the story. They don’t want you to have this information, despite the risks of not knowing. They say you aren’t allowed to ask questions about driving or what might be best for you.

They just argue that it’s better to seek out “reputable” information and do what your driver instructor tells you or what your advanced driving skills instructor tells you. You know, um… pay attention to road conditions, adjust your driving for lighting and weather, observe the speed limits, take care in unknown areas, ensure your car is road worthy and has good tyres. Don’t think for yourself or follow what you think is best for your children – despite the carnage and the licence induced injuries.

So, it’s all about suppressing free speech and free choice. Just like in a communist country. Science doesn’t have all the answers so why we should trust science with something as valuable and potentially dangerous as driving is a mystery. Not one car is 100% safe and even the manufacturers admit this. But they don’t tell you up front. It’s time Australians stood up and raised their voice about these Licences Of Death, forced acceptance of so-called safety standards and returned to the old ways of doing things naturally. Free from interference and free from the lies of big auto backed by big government.”

The announcer quietly says thank you and hangs up.

You wouldn’t listen to this rubbish, so why bother when “safe driving” is swapped for “vaccination”?

18Dec2011

Meryl Dorey’s upcoming Woodford Festival whooping cough trick

Posted in Anti-Vaccination Lobby, Health, Science by Paul Gallagher

At risk of flogging a dead myth it’s worth keeping up deconstructing Meryl Dorey’s falsehoods as they keep arising.

In the near future on radio and most likely at Woodford, Dorey will trot out the old shuffled pertussis vaccination vs notification statistics to argue the vaccine is ineffective. The pertussis trick has been a standard for years but since September 2009, we’ve had access to her data sets when she used them in response to the HCCC regarding complaints raised about her. I’ve looked at each incarnation of this trick, which has scarcely changed.

Her claim begins by pointing out that in 1989-90 just before compulsory notification of pertussis began in 1991, immunisation was 71% (figure 1). This figure is sourced from the top table below, which provides figures from 3 ABS surveys of children 0 – 6 years. [Zoom resolution here].

The bottom table shows that coverage has risen to 95% for the cohort January 1st – March 31st, 2006 in children 2 years and under. It’s from Communicable Diseases Intelligence 2007;31:333. It also informs us the assessment date is June 30, 2008. You can find the same here in Dorey’s submission to the HCCC on page 6.

Figure 1

In replying to the HCCC Dorey referred to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) figures for pertussis which now includes data to 2011 (Figure 2). [Zoom resolution here]. Her claim continues on, using the two data sources. Although retold countless times, I’ll be scrupulous and quote from Dorey herself on page 6 of her HCCC reply:

Since the AVN was established, Australia has experienced an increase of over 23% in our rate of vaccination against whooping cough with a concurrent increase in the incidence of this disease of almost 40 times. Please refer to the Australian government graphs below:

For our purposes these “government graphs” are figures 1 and 2. Sure enough, as we can see below the notification rate in 1991 is 332 and the rate in 2008 is 14,292. But… 2007 has a rate of only 4,864, 2006 has a rate of 9,764. 2005 has a rate of 11,165. And 1996 (12 years earlier) has a rate of 12, 237.

What we see going back are the peaks and troughs associated with pertussis infection and control familiar to the developed world. We also know the present epidemic began in 2008. Before this, 2007 had the least notifications in eight years. In fact according to this table (pertussis per 100,000) it’s the lowest since 1992.

Figure 2

The operative words here are “concurrent increase”. Ms.Dorey frequently palms this off as a steady, correlating increase in infection when the figures show nothing of the sort. There are many problems with this approach. She is using entirely unrelated data sets. The NNDSS data tell us nothing about vaccination or immunity of subjects. There are 18 age groups in NNDSS data. One of Dorey’s vaccination tables in figure 1 covers two age groups only, the other table covers half of the youngest NNDSS age group.

The 1991 and 1992 notification figures are so low as to be anomalies. This is the normal when a disease is placed on the “notifiable” list and practitioners adjust to new requirements.

But now, let’s return to the ABS pertussis vaccination figures Dorey kindly provided. After a slight drop from the 71% she kindly points out, we reach 2001 – a full decade after notifications began – with a pertussis vaccination rate of only 71.6%. This is most cunning on Dorey’s part.

A 0.6% increase in ten years. Why even bother with the first decade? Why not choose 2001 with a notification rate of 9,541 (almost twice that of 2007)?

Clearly it is rank selection of data to convey a falsehood about pertussis vaccination. Exactly as the HCCC have stated. Applying Ms. Dorey’s logic to 2001 and 2007 vaccination and notification rates one can argue a reduction of almost 50% in pertussis infection, with virtually the same increase in immunisation levels. We can see with rising vaccination there has been no “corresponding increase in the incidence of this disease”.

In fact, we have 71.6% coverage in 2001. And 95% in 2006. Both provided by Dorey. That’s five years, but she chooses to cite the 1990 figure of 70% from the upper table, and the assessment date of June 2008 in the lower table of figure 1. Why? Because the initial year of notification (1991) is absurdly small, and 2008 is the beginning of an epidemic.

Indeed, a close look at notification rates in Figure 2 shows comparable rates in the first and second decades, excluding only the epidemic which began in 2008. Ms. Dorey really needs to explain how these figures can be expected to justify her claim.

Next comes age groups, and our understanding as to why Dorey never mentions them. Most infections in Australia are in adults with no immunity. Her 95% in figure 1 applies only to under 2 year olds. This is half of one age group out of the 18 provided by the NNDSS. We know immunity begins to wane certainly by about age ten (if not earlier) and that adults are definitely in need of a booster. In effect most pertussis notifications are from those with no immunity. Figure 3 is pertussis notifications for 2007 (pre-epidemic) by age and sex [Zoom here]:

Figure 3

In any year (including epidemic years) most notifications come from adults. Rather than pointing to total figures Ms. Dorey should be honest and admit that most infections come from the adult population with an immunisation rate of only 11.3%. See page 18, Adult Immunisation Survey. This is insufficient to provide herd immunity.

Adults may show no symptoms or very mild symptoms and not seek any care. What this means is that adult infection levels are higher than notification levels. It’s important to stress that Meryl Dorey will cite infant or childhood vaccination levels, but most notifications come from adults. Ms. Dorey’s claim of total infections casting doubt on 95% of childhood vaccination is again found wanting.

The fact that 0 – 4 is the highest childhood age cohort and comparable with adults of over 30 is due to newborns being unvaccinated and not completing the schedule for many weeks. This places them at extended risk.

So, even giving Dorey’s dodgy data sets a fair run they still fail on a number of fronts to deliver the goods. In fact they undermine her so-called proof. Infections come from non immunised, and as we’ll see below reduction in childhood immunisation is catastrophic. She has some explaining to do.

We know the pertussis vaccine is not a magic bullet and that vaccinated children can catch pertussis as immunity wanes. In general they develop much milder symptoms and are not at risk of death and disability as are unvaccinated infants and small toddlers. It is crucial to ensure vigilance against waning immunity. Boosters should be considered.

Low immunisation levels have been linked to the present outbreak. Tragically it’s been known for quite some time that this epidemic is likely to have begun in Meryl Dorey’s backyard – where she has her greatest influence. The SMH reported in October 2010:

The highest rates of so-called “conscientious objectors” to immunisation are in parts of the north coast – such as Byron Bay – where 12 per cent of children born between 2001 and 2007 were never immunised for any condition. […]

An epidemic of whooping cough in 2008 and 2009 began on the north coast. It quickly swept across the state driven by low vaccination rates in some wealthy parts of Sydney. Low-income areas in western Sydney also had less immunisation and were linked to outbreaks, Dr Menzies said.

California is also experiencing an epidemic on the back of reduced immunisation levels. Dorey recently posted this Californian article about waning pertussis immunity on Facebook, claiming it indicated an ineffective pertussis vaccine. She omitted Dr. Carol Baker:

In QLD where Woodford holds it’s festival? From November last year. Outbreak in QLD as parents snub vaccination:

PARENTS who refuse to vaccinate their children are contributing to the worst whooping cough outbreak on record in Queensland, with notifications likely to exceed 7000 this year.

Four to 8 per cent of children on the Sunshine Coast are registered as so-called “conscientious objectors”, meaning their parents refuse to immunise them. […] Whooping cough is deadly to babies who are too young to be vaccinated. One in 200 babies who contract whooping cough will die.

The advice from all states and federal health authorities is to immunise and ensure immunity is up to scratch with boosters. The outbreak in Australia is due to low immunisation levels and waning immunity in children who have been vaccinated.

The last person to trust is Meryl Dorey.

11Dec2011

Woodford Folk Festival Promote Dangerous Anti-Vaccination Myths

Posted in Alternative "medicine" scams, Denialism, Health, Scam, Science by Paul Gallagher

That’s a Blue Lotus flower. Beautiful isn’t it?

The perfect delicate corolla of petals opening up as if to embrace as much of nature as possible whilst it presents that corona or crown of pollen for harvest. For a short time it will maintain this wonderful display and then subside to make way for the next generation.

Humans have appreciated it’s beauty for thousands of years. Essential to life and death ceremonies, Egyptian artwork shows the priest Nebsini holding and gazing deeply into a Blue Lotus. Beautiful noble women reclining in splendor are also depicted holding the long stem, gazing as if hypnotised into it’s centre. The most important cultivated plant of ancient Egypt it was the flower of the water lilies that grew in the Nile. Nymphaea caerulea. The Egyptian water lily.

In Egyptian mythology it was believed to be the original container of the sun gods Atum and Ra. To Buddhists all Lotus flowers symbolise divine birth as they represent purity and spontaneity. The Blue Lotus itself represents:

The symbol of the victory of the spirit over the senses, of intelligence and wisdom, of knowledge

It contains the alkaloids nuciferene and aporphine which have mildly sedating effects. It is thought to be the plant eaten by Lotophagi in Homer’s Odyssey. “Loto” – lotus. “Phagi” – to eat. It is a favourite compound for aromatherapy and can be used to produce perfumes. Little wonder the Blue Lotus is a favourite of those who seek a more natural path in life and is often used to represent new age pursuits or brands. Blue Lotus means something to alternative mindsets.

Little wonder the guys at the Woodford Folk Festival extracted the essence of marketing from the Blue Lotus as it’s more modern property to claim with a straight face:

Pick up a steaming cup of herbal tea and head to the Blue Lotus, the Festival’s home of healing. Talks, workshops and forums invite conversation from some of Australia’s premier practitioners and open the door for Festivillian involvement…. Late afternoon forums nurture, with health, politics, beauty, revolution and adventure all playing their part. The Blue Lotus is a venue for adventures of the heart, mind and soul.

One of these “premier practitioners” is of course no such thing. How Buddha would react to see intelligence, wisdom and knowledge replaced with the cunning, recklessness and ignorance of the antivaccination lobbyist I can only guess. Last time Meryl Dorey met “lotus” on this blog was in exposing her lie that “measles in ancient Sanskrit means gift of the goddess”. It is actually a curse of the goddess Sitala Mataji, and the mother of the first child “burned” in revenge by the goddess fell into the holy lotus position to beg forgiveness.

I can guess what a great deal of Meryl’s misleading and potentially fatal scam will consist of. There will be the claim that the pertussis vaccine is not working because with 95% vaccination coverage, we happen to have the highest notification levels ever since records began, in 1991. As I noted yesterday however, Dorey will not tell these sitting ducks that of the 18 age groups making up notifications only 2 correspond to the 95% vaccination rate. The vaccination of small children is entirely unrelated to raw notification figures that contain no data on vaccine status or immunity.

16 age groups fall outside that at which immunity begins to wane. In these 16 age groups vaccination coverage is only 11.3%. When we add on numbers of infants too young to have completed pertussis vaccination, it’s clear Dorey’s figures are made up of the unvaccinated and non immune. She won’t tell these young people, young parents that yes, vaccinated people do contract pertussis – but a much milder form. That fatalities are only in the unvaccinated. Those not vaccinated who do not die yet fall gravely ill will be disabled for life if cerebral hypoxia ensues.

The Ancient Egyptians would be appalled at the abuse of their Blue Lotus

Dorey is touted by the promoters thusly:

Investigate before you vaccinate is the motto of the AVN. Having collected reports of thousands of Australian families whose children have been killed or injured by these shots, Meryl knows that the benefit of vaccines don’t always outweigh the risks. Her information is sourced from medical data and is necessary for anyone who is thinking about being vaccinated.

This alone is a collection of lies. Meryl has no reports of children “killed by vaccines”. For the organisers to simply repeat this atrocious lie of “thousands of Australian families” is a public irresponsibility of thunderous immorality. Whist it may seem idiotic at first glance, innocent Aussies will buy into these lies. The benefits of vaccination dwarf the infinitesimal risks. Her fear mongering is not sourced from medical data but cobbled together from conspiracy sites and unrelated data sets such as above.

Basic MMR vs measles risk comparison presented by the Encephalitis Society New England

Dorey is unable to produce these so-called cases of injuries. She will maintain SIDS is due to the hepatitis B vaccine. That Shaken Baby Syndrome – what she calls Shaken Maybe Syndrome – is due to vaccines. She will perhaps misrepresent recent changes in SBS research as proving her point, as some of her members have done. Research is indicating babies may present without problems for many hours following injury. Thus, suspicion cannot always be levelled at the last person to be minding the baby before collapse. This also allows consideration of unseen or seen falls. In the USA convictions have been overturned and innocent people released from prison in light of this. But no, headlines claiming, New thinking in SBS cases, does not implicate vaccines.

For years the insinuation of knowing and having, “vaccine injured” children has sustained Dorey. Yet never have they been produced. No proof exists. Although seemingly delighted at Saba Button’s misfortune I doubt the bragging runs both ways. But at last Dorey has a token victim to abuse in pursuit of more converts. Yet will her audience be told that children die every year from influenza? Or that the risk from severe brain damage is up to 1,000 times greater for measles sufferers than in children with mitochondrial enzyme deficiency, who react to MMR? That MMR produces no fatalities.

Where are Dorey’s citations of vaccine deaths? Simple. Post hoc ergo propter hoc: After this therefore because of this. Confusing correlation with causation. In Dorey’s case (as evidenced by SIDS or claims) the time frame can be years or several years. Yet as many as 1 in 2,500 can die from measles. Deafness from mumps, blindness from rubella. Dorey will raise the isolated cases of mumps infection in unvaccinated religious communities and how such concentrations can overwhelm vaccinated subjects. She will claim this is proof vaccines do not work. She will ignore that “the outbreak is due to infection in an unvaccinated community”.

She’ll insist the autism rate is 1 in 38 using one Korean study. That vaccines are to blame. Yet the Australian rate was recently cited by Swinburne researchers as 1 in 160, as documented by MacDermott et al.2007, The prevalence of autism in Australia. Can it be established from existing data? whilst Baird (USA) and Brugha (UK) suggest 1 in 100 – that’s 1%. Other later reports in 2009, suggest it’s 1 in 100 in Australia. Famously the autism rate for adults using today’s criteria is also 1%. Using the DMS on novel adult groups we find 1 in 100 have autism and don’t know it. That’s also 1%. No adults found to have autism knew they had it, the study reports.

So in 30 years there may have been no change in autism frequency. The primary variable is diagnostic criteria. This in no way dismisses the seriousness of autism, or suggests runaway diagnosis. If anything it reflects sadly on the fact so many in-need children have been previously missed. Yet what it does do is debunk the claim that over the last 30 years autism has become an epidemic and thus, vaccines are to blame.

There’ll will be no end to Dorey’s misinformation. Homeoprophylaxis will be suggested. Natural immunity is the only real immunity. Perhaps a pox party for chicken pox immunity. The immunity equivalent off throwing your child of a bridge to learn to swim. The new P.G.S. – Post Gardasil Syndrome – strangely absent from medical literature. Clean water, fresh food and sanitation wiped out disease, not vaccines, she’ll insist. Which fails utterly to appreciate the Hib vaccine – which she’ll omit.

The success of the Hib vaccine 1993 – 2005 immediately dismisses the claim “better living conditions alone” wiped out some epidemics

Running hot with the pertussis deception will be her new trick, as she opined on the ABC, that the danger in vaccines is made worse by the fact Nicola Roxon and the media did not lead with stories on explaining Conscientious Objection, over the recent immunisation incentive. As if the first piece of advice we need is how to avoid vaccination. Tragically, Dorey will give very detailed instructions on how to avoid vaccination as a C.O. and still receive government payments.

So what do people need to know?

On July 26th, 2010 the HCCC published a public health warning following the AVN’s failure to post warnings that it was anti-vaccination. Prior to this the HCCC had investigated two complaints that the AVN provided false and misleading information. The HCCC concluded it’s investigation on July 12th and gave the AVN 14 days to publish the following on it’s website:

The Australian Vaccination Network’s purpose is to provide information against vaccination in order to balance what it believes is the substantial amount of pro-vaccination information available elsewhere;
The information provided should not be read as medical advice; and
The decision about whether or not to vaccinate should be made in consultation with a health care provider.

As you can see this is markedly more tame than the public health warning, that followed in the wake of her refusal. Which also added that the Australian Vaccination Network;

provides information that is solely anti-vaccination

contains information that is incorrect and misleading

quotes selectively from research to suggest that vaccination may be dangerous

And:

… the AVN provides information that is inaccurate and misleading. The AVN’s failure to include a notice on its website of the nature recommended by the Commission may result in members of the public making improperly informed decisions about whether or not to vaccinate, and therefore poses a risk to public health and safety.

Dorey will plead conspiracies to suppress her right to free speech. But she is the author of her own dilemma. So to spell out the obvious, most of what Meryl Dorey is railing against is by her own hand. Do not be fooled by Meryl Dorey. She is adept at conning audiences and continually seeks her own gain. Do not be fooled by this woman.

Remember:

Ms. Dorey is a discredited anti-vaccination lobbyist deemed a threat to public health and as such can not be trusted to give reasonable or factual information.
Ms. Dorey has no qualifications in health, medicine, nursing, midwifery, public health or any discipline that would legitimise her argument.
Ms. Dorey misrepresents the import of overall infection by omitting proper context.
Ms. Dorey misrepresents the import of pertussis vaccination by omitting crucial information.
The information above is factual yet Ms. Dorey will not present it.
Ms. Dorey does not cite any reliable scientific information and presents arguments that are not supported by any public health authorities or published literature.
Ms Dorey’s aim is to discourage vaccination, to misinform – not promote informed choice.

Whether or not you become one of her victims, or the victims of irresponsible and selfish organisers is really up to you.

ABC Tonic – Whooping cough Advice

10Dec2011

Adults need whooping cough booster

Posted in Anti-Vaccination Lobby, General, Health, Science by Paul Gallagher

Presently Australia is experiencing a major whooping cough (pertussis) epidemic.

It’s been in epidemic proportions since 2008-2009. Interestingly 2007 was the third lowest year on record since notification became compulsory in 1991. 2009 was a notably bad year for pertussis. A major contributor to epidemics is low pertussis vaccination rates, as evidenced here, in the UK and the USA. Adult boosters are crucial in combating this.

Contrary to certain claims this epidemic is not due to the pertussis vaccine nor does it demonstrate inherent flaws in the efficacy of pertussis vaccination. We do know that the age at which pertussis vaccine induced immunity wanes has fallen. Exactly how this relates to the acellular vaccine vs the older whole cell vaccine and the bordetella pertussis bacteria, is complex. However, there is a basic account here, along with interviews on The World Today and some musing on the error in blaming vaccine efficacy.

California experienced a severe epidemic in 2010, confirming the problem with waning immunity. Often used as a trick by antivaccination lobbyists to claim “the vaccinated” mostly get pertussis, the reality is different. Vaccinated individuals can catch a much milder form of pertussis, yet unvaccinated patients experience severe illness, disability and even death. In this same article, under Waning Pertussis Immunity Comes as No Surprise Dr. Carol Baker writes in part:

The California epidemic was caused by underimmunization of some children, and by waning immunity in fully vaccinated children. It showed that we are not where we need to be to have herd immunity. The 2010 California outbreak caught everyone’s attention.

Recently in Australia claims were made about pertussis vaccine inefficacy on ABC which I looked at here. It’s a favourite theme of the AVN and if you’re keen to look at exposing tactics it has popped up here, and here involving abuse of WHO data whilst we even have a cameo from Viera Scheibner pushing much the same at about the 6:45 mark.

Regarding adult boosters of 1 dose, the NCIRS fact sheet on pertussis (below), backed by citations states [my bold]:

The efficacy of the pertussis components of dTpa vaccines administered to adolescents and adults is inferred from the serologic results obtained in infants immunised with paediatric DTPa in pertussis efficacy trials. For both dTpa vaccine formulations, the immune responses to all pertussis vaccine antigens in adolescents and adults 1 month after a single dose of dTpa were non-inferior to those of infants after 3 doses of DTPa.

A large clinical trial in adolescents and adults demonstrated overall vaccine efficacy against confirmed pertussis of 92%, and a clinical trial in adults demonstrated prolonged immunogenicity from a single dTpa booster dose, with pertussis antibodies remaining above pre-booster dose levels in 85% of participants for 5 years after immunisation.

It’s widely known pertussis boosters are or have been available free in many states and territories. This may vary between new parents, family members, foster parents and other adults as a view of this Immunise Australia page suggests. It’s probably best to contact your own health department or just call the local GP. So, how are adults going keeping up with boosters?

According to the Australian Government 2009 Adult Vaccination Survey:

An estimated 11.3% of Australians aged 18 years and over had received a pertussis vaccination as an adult or adolescent. Uptake was substantially higher among parents of infants aged less than 12 months old (51.5%).

Hmmm. It seems we can certainly lift our game. If you haven’t had a booster for 4-5 years please get one. If you’re an adult likely to be in contact with a newborn then definitely get one.

If you’re none too happy with the conduct of the antivaccination lobby the single greatest effect you can have against them is to get a pertussis booster. As adult herd immunity rises less infections will be passed to at risk children, non-immunised infants, other adults and there will be less notification in total. This will serve to deflate the claim that rising diagnoses are ipso facto proof that childhood vaccination is a failure.

The Australian Vaccination Network wrongly compares 95% pertussis vaccination rates in young children (11% of diagnosed age groups) with 11.3% of adult vaccination (89% of diagnosed age groups). Then claim total population infection (100% of all diagnoses) is due to ineffectiveness of childhood vaccination alone.

For example Meryl Dorey compares vaccination rates of small children – which are around 95% – with diagnosis across all age groups – which include adults at around 11.3% – to secure high notification levels. Of the 18 age groups making up notifications only 2 correspond to the 95% vaccination rate. 16 age groups fall outside that at which immunity begins to wane (the 11.3% vaccination rate). Including numbers of infants too young to have completed pertussis vaccination, it’s clear Dorey’s figures come most primarily from the unvaccinated and non immune.

Today, ABC AM interviewed a parent who lost a four week old to pertussis. She said:

I hadn’t had a booster and the most heart-wrenching thing for us is that we were not warned, there was meant to be a yellow warning sticker go on [her] blue book in the hospital, we didn’t get one.

We didn’t know about adults requiring boosters, nor did any of the adults around us, none of our family or friends knew and we also didn’t know that the area I was living in was in the grip of an epidemic.

Well, now we do know. There’s really no excuse if you’re able to be vaccinated.

Please get your pertussis booster ASAP.

Listen here: