In 2015 Bill Gates advised on the need to prepare for a global pandemic

In 2015 Bill Gates gave a TED Talk on the importance of preparedness for a global pandemic caused by “a highly infectious virus”.

An Ebola epidemic that began in December 2013, and continued until 2016, had by that time killed around 10,000 people in West Africa. Gates cites three reasons as to why there weren’t more deaths. 1.) The selfless work by front line health workers including locating infected persons and preventing further spread (see Contact Tracing below). 2.) Ebola is not an airborne virus and by the time those who are infected become contagious, most are so ill as to be bedridden. 3.) The virus did not reach many urban areas and this directly kept the number of cases lower than had Ebola spread throughout urban communities.

He also refers to what he calls “a global failure”. Noting the slowness of response. The failure to study treatment approaches, diagnostics and the application of epidemiological and medical tools.

In what has been shown to be an uncomfortably prescient statement Gates notes;

So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they’re infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market.

Gates uses the Spanish Flu of 1918 to demonstrate how quickly an airborne virus can spread. He observes that the World Bank have estimated that a global flu epidemic will cause a drop in global wealth of “over three trillion dollars” and there would be “millions and millions of deaths”.

It’s important to note that the present reality with COVID-19 is not absolutely reflected in Gates’ TED Talk. Trends of global financial impact have not yet played out. Total fatalities will be disturbing and many may lose friends and loved ones, yet the prediction of “millions and millions” of deaths is not a current reality.

Nonetheless the reason that the capacity to reduce morbidity and mortality – to flatten the curve – is in our hands is indeed touched on by Gates. Just after the five minute mark he speaks of our ability to use certain tools to create an effective response system. Science and technology. The use of cell phones to inform the public. Satellite maps to inform on the movement of people. Advances in biology and research that will support rapid turnaround of drugs and vaccines to fit the pathogen responsible for the pandemic.

As I touched on above another factor discussed but not labelled as such by Gates, that is presently more robustly employed to reduce the spread of COVID-19 is Contact Tracing. Gates talks about locating infected persons and preventing further spread. In May 2017 African Health Sciences published a review of contact tracing in containing the 2014 Ebola outbreak. However with an airborne coronavirus this has proven, as expected, to be enormously more complicated.

At the time of writing there exists a spectrum of tactics in various countries, with some considered invasive to privacy. Israel has passed emergency laws to allow its security agency, Shin Bet to tap peoples phones without a warrant.

According to the Computational Privacy Group in the case of Singapore (using TraceTogether), Taiwan and South Korea this involves using cell phones and dedicated software in the;

…recording [of] close proximity between people using Bluetooth, WiFi, or GPS data, [which] could help efficiently notify people that they have earlier been in contact with someone now diagnosed with coronavirus and should self-isolate

The CPG have published Can we fight COVID-19 without resorting to mass surveillance? which looks at both location data and contact tracing in different regions, and the technology used.

Reports in Australia have suggested that tracking the public through their phones has been considered and that the federal government is “looking to Singapore” and the TraceTogether app. Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services has expanded contact tracing to include use of the messaging platform Whispir.

IT News reports;

The department will begin using the cloud-based platform from Thursday to regularly interact with those that have come into close contact with someone who has contracted COVID-19.

The platform, which will automate interactions between the department and select individuals, will also be used to enforce self-isolation for Victorians who have confirmed cases of the virus.

Gates was more than reasonably accurate in predicting our response. Presented without exact figures from the epidemiology and pathology of the infectious agent Gates’ description of how we could and would respond deserves high marks.

Presently we are witnessing the application of the tools at our disposal to flatten the curve of morbidity and mortality. We know that only an effective vaccine can break the back of the pandemic as it now exists. Drugs that target specific symptoms and slow or prevent the impact on COVID-19 comorbidity are greatly needed. The use of cell phone apps to both inform and trace the public is well underway.

Most importantly we have accepted that staying at home, social distancing and increasingly reducing the number of people together in public, together with effective hand washing and smothering of coughs or sneezes are vitally effective measures. Some of these measures should be employed every flu season and it’s hoped we will continue to do just that.

One imagines we will be better prepared in future for the emergence of another pandemic. Gates was right in that we needed to prepare. We see that clearly now in the need for hospital beds, ventilators and other medical equipment. He also noted the necessity of strong health systems in poor countries and presently the need for increased funding in developing nations is a reality. [AlJazeera news video]

To finish off perhaps we should focus on what Gates observed at the end of his talk;

So I think this should absolutely be a priority. There’s no need to panic. We don’t have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.

In fact, if there’s one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it’s that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.

Of course we were not utterly unprepared for a pandemic. Far from it. There are global and national agencies throughout the world that focus on both the risk of a viral pandemic and how we can best prepare. Developing nations are closely monitored by organisations such as the WHO and the UN. Still the lack of any treatment or vaccine to prevent COVID-19 has proven to be an enormous hurdle.

Developed nations are in a better position to fund and respond to recommendations. Australia has a Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza, last updated in August 2019. The UK has its Pandemic Contingency/Major Infectious Diseases Outbreak Plan. Similar plans exist around the world.

An interesting dynamic in the USA at present is whilst President Trump has criticised the CDC for its response to coronavirus, he had from 2018 cut their budget for global disease management and closed government units dedicated to preventing pandemics.

Trump’s administration has also cut similar funding for the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Health and Human Services (HHS). Other cuts to CDC funding used to manage chronic disease are scheduled for 2021 and as yet have not been approved by Congress. Perhaps justifiably Trump has come under scorn for his approach to the coronavirus outbreak.

Funding for the prevention of pandemics is an essential part of a solid public health budget. Without a doubt these budgets should be designed with input from scientists. By shirking reason and evidence in their pursuit of “alternative facts” and a post truth world, the Trump administration had maneuvered itself into an increasingly perilous position.

One hopes that as we move toward the future and find ourselves past the COVID-19 pandemic that we aim to listen to the evidence, learn from the past and prepare for pandemics we cannot yet predict.


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TRANSCRIPT

00:17
When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. That’s why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.

00:37
Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesn’t look like this. Instead, it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that we’ve invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But we’ve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We’re not ready for the next epidemic.

01:20
Let’s look at Ebola. I’m sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn’t that there was a system that didn’t work well enough, the problem was that we didn’t have a system at all. In fact, there’s some pretty obvious key missing pieces.

01:51
We didn’t have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didn’t have a medical team ready to go. We didn’t have a way of preparing people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried.

02:53
So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the movies it’s quite different. There’s a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but that’s just pure Hollywood.

03:22
The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Let’s look at the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. There’s three reasons why it didn’t spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They found the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time you’re contagious, most people are so sick that they’re bedridden. Third, it didn’t get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger.

04:17
So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they’re infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.

04:39
In fact, let’s look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here’s what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned.

05:04
But in fact, we can build a really good response system. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. We’ve got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they’re moving. We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness.

05:41

The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared are again, what we do for war. For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go. We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers. NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained? Do they understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies? So they are absolutely ready to go. So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.

06:13
What are the key pieces? First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. That’s where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where we’ll see the outbreak very early on. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of people who’ve got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise. And then we need to pair those medical people with the military. Taking advantage of the military’s ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas. We need to do simulations, germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn’t go so well. So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0. Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics. There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus, that could work very, very quickly.

07:21
Now I don’t have an exact budget for what this would cost, but I’m quite sure it’s very modest compared to the potential harm. The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and we’d have millions and millions of deaths. These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. The primary healthcare, the R&D, those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as more safe.

07:55
So I think this should absolutely be a priority. There’s no need to panic. We don’t have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.

08:09
In fact, if there’s one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it’s that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.

08:26
Thank you.

No reason to not vaccinate but anti-vaxxers continue to resist sound health policy

On April 17th last year Paul Offit was interviewed by Christiane Amanpour of CNN on the fact that there is “no legitimate reason” for not vaccinating.

This video very recently accompanied a February 21st article by U.S. pediatrician Dr. Edith Brancho-Sanchez, entitled Several vaccines at once might be too much for parents, but kids are just fine. The article reinforced the fact that the misinformation regarding the safety and efficacy of vaccines causes variations of anxiety in parents who take their children to be vaccinated.

It was reported that a 2014 USA National Immunization Surveillance Survey indicated that;

… over a third of parents of children ages 19 to 35 months followed delayed immunization schedules. Of the parents surveyed, 23% followed an alternate schedule that either limited the number of shots per visit or skipped at least one vaccine series altogether. Another 14% followed an unknown or unclassifiable schedule that did not follow a pattern and was not in line with national recommendations. Children who followed an alternate pattern were four times as likely not to be up to date on their vaccines and those who followed an unclassifiable pattern were over twice as likely not to be up to date.

Regrettably pediatricians are in a Catch 22 situation. They need to build parental trust. A 2015 study published in Pediatrics indicated that 93% of 534 pediatricians had been asked by parents of children under 2 to spread out vaccines. 82% believed complying with the parent’s request would build trust, whilst 80% thought if they declined, this may lead to parents leaving their practice.

In Connecticut, USA state lawmakers “narrowly advanced a bill” this week that seeks to ban religious vaccine exemptions for children. Despite reports of a 25% increase in religious exemptions from last year anti-vaccine opposition to the bill was fierce including protests in Connecticut’s Legislative Office Building. One Democrat representative, who seemed to have abandoned any pretense of basing his decision on evidence, referred to vaccination as “injecting a witches brew of chemicals”.

Here in Australia the leading anti-vaccine disinformation group The Australian Vaccination-risks Network has called on members and fellow anti-vaxxers to heed another infamous Action Alert. They are targetting Victoria and South Australia. In Victoria the Health Services Amendment Bill 2020 seeks to provide for mandatory vaccination of healthcare and ambulance workers with specific immunisations. Ten days ago the Victorian Minister for Health published this media release outlining the logic behind the decision.

The vaccines included are the flu vaccine, whooping cough, measles, chicken pox and hepatitis B. It is astonishing, as we witness the evolving impact of COVID-19 in the absence of a vaccine, that groups such as the AVN seek to multiply these negative effects. They have teamed up with the anti-science, anti-medicine group, Health Freedom Victoria helping to disseminate their “generic letter” for anti-vaxxers to mail to “all Victorian politicians including your local member”. Of course one may pen ones own. Be sure to stress you “vehemently oppose this draconian overreach of the Andrews’ government”.

They also advise to follow up with phone calls. Following that, they basically suggest harassing Martin Foley who is Minister for Mental Health, Minister for Equality and Minister for Creative Industries. Martin Foley’s mental health portfolio sees him quite active in reducing discrimination for Victorians living with mental health challenges. Health Freedom Victoria want anti-vaxxers working in the health sector to email and call Mr. Foley to;

Tell him you are appalled that he would change the Discrimination Act to get away with forcing you to take an untested and unwanted medical procedure in order to keep your job

In the material they have disseminated to encourage targetting Martin Foley, Health Freedom Victoria refer to him as, “the Minister for amongst other things, Mental Health and Discrimination”.

South Australia introduced No Jab No Play legislation on September 30th 2019. Again there is a “generic letter” ready to go. In both cases the AVN seek to motivate loyal anti-vaccine followers to engage in pestering letter and/or email writing campaigns, asking those involved to follow up with a phone call, in this case “within half an hour but at least by the end of the day”. This is to confirm they have received your email and will be sending a Decision Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS). Of course one should inform the person you’ll call back in two weeks to chase up that RIS. And why?

In the words of the AVN themselves;

Phone calls increase their workload, so they’re more likely to do their job to avoid getting repeat calls.

Yep, you read that right. Wasting the time of your local members already busy and hard working staff is ensuring they “do their job”.

Now, it’s over to Paul Offit…

 

#DoctorsSpeakUp – Say something positive about vaccines on March 5th 2020

Dr. Nicole Baldwin is a US based paediatrician who published a video on Tik Tok in support of vaccination.

As ZDogg MD has confirmed in his own video, Stop Being Afraid of Antivaxxers and Speak Up! (below) Dr. Baldwin’s effort drew a quite predictable response from the anti-vaccine movement. Driven by belief in conspiracy theories, an obscene sense of self-entitlement and complete disregard for the safety and lifestyle of those who support immunisation, their response was reported in MedPage Today;

Members of the “anti-vax” community discovered it and launched a “global, coordinated attack,” posting negative comments across Baldwin’s social media pages including her Facebook and Twitter.

They also went for the jugular: knowing that a physician’s online presence is critical, they barraged her online review sites, including Yelp and Google Reviews, with one-star reviews to sabotage her practice.

Some even called her practice, Northeast Cincinnati Pediatric Associates, and harassed the staff. One woman — whom Baldwin described as “very angry” — threatened to “come and shut down our practice,” prompting Baldwin to call the police.

But most intimidating was a post from an anti-vax Facebook group that said, “dead doctors don’t lie.”

“Ultimately what the anti-vax community wants is to scare us into silence,” she told MedPage Today.

The hypocrisy of these attacks is breathtaking. Certainly for Aussies who must endure the absolutely manufactured fear mongering designed to defame members of Australian Skeptics Inc. and Stop The AVN. This takes the form of ongoing bogus claims by AVN founder Meryl Dorey that members of either group pose a risk of violence and/or disruption at anti-vaccine events that the group holds.

Tickets are advertised on say, Eventbrite, with a qualifying message such as this one;

The exact venue within Logan City, QLD, will be sent to the email address you used to purchase your tickets, at 4:30pm the day of the screening, Tuesday 6th December, 2016.

Or this rubbish that accompanied Vaxxed II ticket sales to screenings at “Secret Venues” in December 2019;

Due to the well-orchestrated threats of violence and abuse that come from the pro-censorship community, the exact venue will not be announced until the day of the screening.

Oh yes. That’s “pro-censorship community” to you, you evidence retentive, violent, abusive so and so.

Apart from these attacks the AVN uses social media and frequently membership emails to push harassment of grieving parents who promote vaccines, journalists, newspapers, media watchdogs and media authorities. For example note the update at the base of last months post.

Back to Dr. Baldwin. In response to the attacks on her online review sites she got in touch with Shots Heard Round The World. Founded by paediatrician Todd Wolynn, MD, it’s described as;

…a network of vaccination advocates who describe themselves as a “rapid-response digital cavalry.”

You can check out Todd’s interview with ZDogg MD, How to fight back when antivaxxers attack. Or if it suits you better head over to Soundcloud and grab the audio there.

According to MedPage Today;

Baldwin said that since she allowed Shots Heard to take over her Facebook account, they’ve been posting positive comments and blocking commenters from her page; a total of 5,000 accounts have been banned as of Monday night, she said.

Shots Heard is also helping to get the fake online reviews taken down, which is never easy, particularly with Google, Wolynn said. But ongoing media coverage likely pressed the tech giant into taking down the reviews, Baldwin said.

So that’s a promising outcome. But more needs to be done to ensure health professionals and others aren’t constant pawns in the games of vaccine conspiracy theorists. On March 5th, as ZDogg makes clear at the end of his video, is an opportunity to get online in numbers and say something positive about vaccines. Use the tag #DoctorsSpeakUp and see if you can offer some material that educates about vaccines, or indeed exposes antivax material for what it is.

We have calculated ongoing lies about the perceived “pro-censorship” enemies of antivaccinationists, the commanding of “flying monkeys” to attack grieving parents and organised en masse attacks on a professional’s online identity along with death threats. To be sure however, whatever fashion it comes in those of us who support vaccination have witnessed the anti-vaccine lobby target individuals in shocking and cruel detail.

Keep an eye on #DoctorsSpeakUp and remember March 5th.

Stop Being Afraid of Antivaxxers & Speak Up!

 

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“No balance possible between facts and non-science”

The title of this post is taken from a statement by Dr. Norman Swan, presenter of The Health Report on ABC Radio National.

Dr. Swan was responding to the failure by ABC Radio Hobart to meet ABC editorial standards as a result of the airing of uncontested and demonstrably bogus claims from anti-vaccine lobby group, Australian Vaccination-risks Network. An interview with the current president of the group, Aneeta Hafemeister was broadcast on the evening of December 4th. Hafemeister spoke with Kyia Clayton, who is producer of the programme in question: Evenings with Paul McIntyre.

This absolute debacle featured on the next edition of Media Watch on December 9th wherein viewers were informed by presenter Paul Barry that listeners to the ABC Hobart interview “were furious”. The evening following the interview, Paul McIntyre admitted he had broadcast an interview which “failed the pub test”. He also acknowledged that the anti-vax claims needed to be interrogated and fact checked by a medical expert. We’re told on Media Watch;

And so to fix the damage, McIntyre invited vaccine researcher Dr. Jessica Kaufman to debunk the anti-vaxxer message

You can listen to the audio (© ABC Media Watch) below, which contains outtakes from the original interview, or read the segment transcript. The video and transcript of the relevant Media Watch segment are available here.

 

In his statement Norman Swan observed;

This story hides behind a misplaced view of ABC’s need for balance

Indeed. More to the point, this is not the first time that the ABC has been under fire for use of the AVN (and at the time) its founder, actual leader and frequent spokesperson, Meryl Dorey. Use of the AVN does not provide any genuine balance on the topic of vaccination. Rather false balance is what the result is.

In December 2011 two complaints to the ABC regarding Dorey and editorial standards were upheld.

So this is a problem that the ABC is familiar with. In fact with the same anti-vaccine organisation.

In her exploitation of the measles tragedy to strike Samoa, Hafemeister peddled the nonsense of vaccine shedding. In response to these claims Dr. Jessica Kaufman said;

… there’s not a risk of actually catching the measles from being around someone who has been vaccinated with a live vaccine.

… that’s just an overstated and misrepresented argument …

Vaccine shedding was initially the subject of a post here in October 2011. Hafemeister sounds confident in pushing the false claim that MMR and varicella vaccines are “shed” by the recently vaccinated and can thus infect others, particularly the immune compromised.

The difficulty with this anti-vaccine trope is that after vaccination with a live virus such as Oral Polio Virus, a weakened form of the virus may be present in faeces. An immunosuppresed person who comes in contact with the faecal material might be exposed. Whether viral transmission occurs and what effect this may have cannot be predicted and indeed not generalised. These events are extremely rare and specific to certain vaccines only – such as OPV.

Sadly the anti-vaccine lobby distorts the reality and wrongly spreads fear specific to other vaccines on the general vaccination regime. Please check the references below.

The issues being misrepresented here are viral shedding and viral transmission. Notice anti-vaxxers don’t use these terms. Why? Because these terms have a body of evidence that define them. And evidence brings facts. And facts scare anti-vaxxers. Because they like to make stuff up. And facts get in the way of making stuff up. Facts like these…

Janet R. Serwint, MD referred to both MMR and varicella vaccines in Vaccines in immunocompromised patients.

MMR, varicella, and rotavirus vaccines, although live viral vaccines, are recommended for immunocompetent household contacts because transmission of the virus is rare. The lack of viral shedding with MMR eliminates concern regarding transmission. Because the varicella virus rarely can be shed through a postimmunization vesicular rash that may develop, recommendations include avoiding contact until the rash resolves. For the rotavirus vaccine, avoidance of contact with the stools by the immunocompromised patient and good hand hygiene measures by all family members for at least 1 week after vaccination should be implemented.

Some authors have advised that severely immunocompromised children should not receive live vaccines due to the risk of disease. However they do not mention “vaccine shedding”. Rather ensuring vaccination of those with “altered immunocompetence” is important.

In general, severely immunocompromised children should not receive live vaccines, either viral or bacterial, because of the risk of disease caused by vaccine strains.

[…]

Household contacts and other close contacts of persons who have altered immunocompetence, however, should receive all other age-appropriate vaccines, including the live oral rotavirus vaccines.

[]

In fact in their abstract Campbell and Herold stress the importance of vaccinating transplant candidates;

The administration of vaccines to transplant candidates earlier and more rapidly than in the healthy child will improve vaccination rates among transplant recipients while not compromising immunogenicity. The recommended vaccines and vaccine schedule are discussed in detail.

The ABC released a statement with respect to the one sided anti-vaccine interview. They note in part;

The program also failed to upwardly refer the decision to devote a segment solely to an anti-vaxxer. Had it done so, the interview would not have taken place.

This must refer to programme producer Kyia Clayton. Indeed in a voice oozing anti-vaccine empathy Clayton finishes the interview with;

Thank you so much for giving me your time and for speaking to me about this challenging issue across the planet. I think everyone’s voice needs to be heard.

“… this challenging issue across the planet”? Coming on the back of anti-vaccine waffle? Utter. Damn. Piffle. Kyia Clayton had decided that “everyone’s voice” includes the lies and misinformation of the anti-vaccine lobby.

Making a bullshit executive decision she “failed” to refer it upward for consideration. If proper procedure was followed, Aneeta Hafemeister’s take on vaccine shedding would never have gone to air.

So another concern here is that the bogus vaccine claims originally, potentially made it to air thanks to the intentional cunning of an ABC staff member.


  1. The Myth of Vaccine Shedding – SBM
  2. Vaccine Shedding – Wikipedia
  3. Understanding live vaccines and vaccine shedding
  4. Shedding of live vaccine virus…
  5. Can vaccines cause or spread diseases?
  6. What is vaccine shedding? Here’s what you really need to know

UPDATE: On December 11th and 14th 2019, MERYL DOREY summoned underlings to complain to ABC Media Watch and Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), as per the below screenshot from the emails.

[Redacted]

Dorey also claimed in her personal complaint correspondence to ACMA;

It is obvious that Media Watch has been spreading dangerous, incorrect information which could place the lives and health of cancer patients and the immunocompromised at risk.

Measles in Samoa: Thank the anti-vaccination lobby

The manner in which members of the anti-vaccination lobby have leapt upon the measles tragedy in Samoa identifies their awful, predatory cult quite well.

To completely understand why anti-vaccine activists promote such intellectually vicious lies and indeed hatred regarding an epidemic that Samoa has labelled a state of emergency I’d argue we need to first look back. Back to July last year when headlines reported the deaths of two infants following the MMR vaccination. Or rather, what we now know was thought to be MMR vaccine. We need to look back dear reader because antivaccinationists reacted in an “I told ya so” manner that was almost glee.

Despite there never being a recorded death due to vaccination or a vaccine in Australia, anti-vax profiteers who have peddled lies for years contend that death and disability after vaccination not only happens but are widespread. A vaccinologist was quoted in evidence to the No Jab No Pay Bill hearing that in Australian injuries serious enough to require compensation range between zero and five per year. I do apologise for referring to that occasion yet again. I also recommend the government publication Questions About Vaccination.

We must look back because regrettably it was the bogus causation peddled by anti-vax identities that gave them the confidence to begin commenting on this measles outbreak that hit Samoa in October this year (2019). As for facts, genuine health professionals and epidemiologists would be familiar with adulterated, out of date and counterfeit medications and vaccines causing harm in nations with health systems and infrastructure less developed than in New Zealand or Australia. Yet these events occur far less today due to safety procedures instigated across the globe.

Following investigations into the infant deaths in Samoa evidence was collated concluding “a tragic outcome from error preparing MMR vaccine”. The Immunisation Advisory Centre of New Zealand reports;

On 4 June 2019, both nurses pleaded guilty to negligence causing manslaughter. On 2 August, both nurses were sentenced to five years in prison. During the sentencing hearing, it was confirmed that one of the nurses mixed the MMR vaccine powder with expired muscle relaxant anaesthetic instead of water for injection supplied in a vial with the vaccine. Eight Samoan speaking New Zealand nurses visited Samoa in June to provide training for vaccinating nurses at district hospitals.

The same reference informs us there has never been a death associated with this vaccine in N.Z. It also has a helpful timeline and includes under August 3rd;

Report on RNZ website: The two nurses, who pleaded guilty to negligence causing the manslaughter of two infants, have been sentenced to five years in prison.

The Samoa Observer published a detailed account of the sentencing hearing, where it was confirmed that one of the nurses mixed the MMR vaccine powder with expired muscle relaxant anaesthetic instead of water for injection supplied in a vial with the vaccine.

The entire event effected parent confidence in immunisation. These doubts were magnified by antivaccinationists resulting in a further realisation of their aim: a reduction in vaccination. The Guardian recently reported that the WHO blames the “anti-vaccine scare” for the rise in cases and of course deaths. Kate O’Brien, director of the WHO immunisation department stressed that the rapid spread of measles in Samoa was due to the “very low coverage” of immunisation.

This resulted in the temporary suspension of the country’s immunisation programme and dented parents’ trust in the vaccine, even though it later turned out the deaths were caused by other medicines that were incorrectly administered.

O’Brien said that an anti-vaccine group had been stoking these fears further with a social media campaign, lamenting that “this is now being measured in the lives of children who have died in the course of this outbreak”.

Misinformation about the safety of vaccines, she said, “has had a very remarkable impact on the immunisation programme” in Samoa.

At least 42 fatalities can be attributed to this measles epidemic at time of writing. In the video below anti-vaxxer identity Taylor Winterstein is mentioned as having visited Samoa in June with diehard anti-vaxxer Robert Kennedy Jnr. Winterstein described herself as “pro-science” the narrator tells us. Oh, my.

Please spend some time reading up on this woman who is presently making a living scamming Wellness devotees and the ill out of their money.

Given the harrowing situation in Samoa and the speed at which measles morbidity and mortality is increasing the government has made the measles vaccine compulsory and warned those preventing community members from being vaccinated to stop.

Such as Fritz Alaiasa Neufelt, the oh-so-savvy businessman selling filtered tap water as the measles fighting “Kangen Water”. Lying as he plays with the lives of ill Samoans he claims that after a spray of his magic water;

“They’re feeling good,” he said. “The measles are already … not cured, but it’s already back to normal”.

The ABC recently reported that the “pro-science” Winterstein was a tad concerned about the governments position. No, not the position of vile Fritz spraying measles sufferers like office plants but the government.

In fact her rational, objective, pro-science mind has applied Godwin’s Law. The ABC cite her calm demeanor;

… Australian-Samoan influencer Taylor Winterstein made recent posts on Facebook and Instagram comparing Samoa’s compulsory vaccination program as akin to “Nazi Germany”.

“Forcing a medical procedure on an entire country, especially one that is proving to be ineffective, dangerous and making the virus more deadly, is straight up barbaric,” she wrote on Facebook.

So um, check it out, right. A “pro-science”, so-called “influencer” who peddles herself as a health guru has a tantrum claiming that the only known safe and effective preventative for measles is “proving to be ineffective, dangerous and making the virus more deadly”. And yeah, Nazi Germany. Pfft. Oh I’m influenced Tay. Trust me.

I’d say you can’t make this stuff up but that’s exactly what they do. Consider the increase in cases below and the time frame it covers.

© Source: virologydownunder.com

Data: Samoan Government Facebook and Ministry of Health websites and media comments. Last update 27/11/19

Preparation: Ian M. Mackay, PhD

Immunisation rates were previously far higher in Samoa. Four years ago MMR coverage was 84%. By 2017 it had already dropped to 60%. Last year (2018) it had fallen to 31%.

There is no doubt. A drop in MMR vaccination has brought Samoa to a tragedy of shocking proportions. Two doses of MMR is the recommended, clearly life saving, dose.

But still, Meryl Dorey of The Australian Vaccination Risks Network tweeted this dishonest evidence free nonsense (left) just recently. Just as Winterstein pushes the piffle that the vaccine makes the virus more deadly, Dorey tries to convince her cult that malpractice is the cause.

I would urge Meryl Dorey to have another look above at the facts and follow some of the links. Revisit what is known about these deaths. Understand that it was not the expected MMR vaccine they received before dying.

Accept two nurses are now serving five years in prison for negligence. Know it was a negligent error in preparing the adulterated mixture that led to the deaths, then an eight month suspension of MMR. Admit the facts, admit the reality. Stop your lies.

Stop your negligence.