Very late on Christmas Eve 2023, Santa had just dropped me a rather special present.
I more or less knew what it was by feeling the packaging, but still fumbled hastily until it sat gleaming in my hand. There it was. A brand new COVID-19 infection.
I could hear him jingling happily into the distance, with the words “naughty” and “nice” echoing on the breeze. Then, “falsifiable hypotheses” wafted back.
Of course! I suddenly remembered a discussion years ago, soaking our blistered feet in cured reindeer urine, when he told me anything that could be falsified was inherently “naughty”. Wrongly, I thought I had properly explained things to him.
This time, I’d sort him out. “Santa, Santa. I just KNOW we’ve had this conversation before”, I yelled in his direction.
I continued.
” Making a list, and checking it twice , gonna find out who’s naughty and nice… does not a falsifiable hypothesis make. I just… I mean, I can’t even….”.
He answered with a vague reference to falsifying anti-vaxxer claims and something even more vague about my feet needing another urine soak. Next thing an apparition-like, misty glob of reindeer, a sleigh, a fat, smelly-chap, sacks of presents and boxes of Rapid Antigen Tests was in front of me. Santa folded his arms and confidently started his defence.
I responded,
“Wait! What?! Say that again. I’ve been ‘naughty’, because I revealed falsification, and therefore I can’t enjoy Christmas this year? No, no dude, you’re attributing subjective emotional qualities to the entire notion of the falsibility hypothesis. Yeah I get it – you’re saying if I hadn’t showed things were totally false that I’d have been ‘nice’, particularly because you were checking it twice. But if I may, with respect old chap, it simply doesn’t work that way.”
He laughed, pointing at me, and asked, “Why the fud not?”
I was feeling far from well but managed.
“Well because, my long-bearded, voluminous-bellied friend. The very notion that the hypothesis can be falsified, is what lends it such robust integrity in the first place. Suggesting falsifiability is ‘naughty’ and anything not shown to be false is ‘nice’, is likely a position arrived at via a sequence of logical fallacies.
He said I was making some sense but sounding very lah-de-dah. So, I went on.
“Okay, let’s agree your position is that honesty or not ‘being false’, can be labelled very simply as ‘nice’. Cool? Righto then. And that dishonesty, or being deliberately false can be labelled as ‘naughty’. So, deliberate falsehoods coming from, ooh let’s say anti-vaxxers, are ‘naughty’. In fact they are known for providing so-called data based on fabrication, and fraud. So, let’s say ‘very naughty’.
Now, that all sounds okay, but it can’t really be tested beyond the scope of opinion. It also takes unnecessary work and lends credence to fraudsters. Better then, that the theory or hypothesis is one that can be tested and logically refute the idea being questioned, particularly if the falsification can be based on empiricism (what we see or experience).”
Santa asked if empiricism was like the Black Runes-of-Empiricism that Senator Malcolm Roberts used, to make a mockery of climate change.
“Why yes, you’ve heard of him then? A total… whoa, okay… sorry, yes, yes I did see the pontoons strapped to the sleigh. Bit sloshy up North… I can grasp that. Reality and Roberts don’t get on, Santa. Not a fan are we? No Ho, eh? Ah, well… er, no we can’t do the sword thing anymore. No, no the Blood Eagle never did take on down South. Sorry. Free speech and such. Oh? Well, um, I’d prefer to say we’ve become, “civilised” but “as sturdy as walrus diarrhoea” will do for any justified criticism in this case, old chap.”
Santa mumbled on about colourful torment to Roberts for a while, many involving objects I had never heard of, then he then gradually worked his way back to chatting about falsifying arguments and hypotheses.
I jumped in.
“So, see it’s simple really. If you can devise a method to falsify an argument that someone is proposing, then it is held to a greater standard of proof because it is possible to falsify it. Even if it has never been falsified. It just means it is possible to imagine or construct an argument to falsify it.”
I was by now feeling pretty crook and thought I might try my luck at swapping my present.
“Now Santa. Maaate, buddy, bloke. I realise we’re a long way from naughty and nice but I hope this clears things up, and clafifies the obvious error of this rather unique present you’ve dropped off. I guess this is one test I’d like to have seen falsified as it were… Nudge, nudge. Any chance you can wave the magic stocking..?
What’s that? Yes, yes, I did expose a bunch of anti-vaxxer arguments as false. They were false – fabricated in fact. In fact they were all bad. Thanks for noticing – it’s quite a long way for news to travel up North. What do you mean I’m still naughty? Er, yeah, okay… sure… But dude, I don’t CARE how many times you’re making a list, and checking it twice . Didn’t you understand a single thing we just discussed?
So, I’m what now? I’m too Skeptical? So I’m naughty because I’m too Skeptical? Oh, righty-Ho-Ho! What? Well, yes I’ve had a few COVID vaccines. Oh, I see that’s what this is. But I never said they were 100% protective; that’s an anti-vax logical fallacy. Gawd, Santa! Vaccines do reduce symptoms though. What? Well, er pretty sh*t actually. I’m running a temp of 39 C. But tomorrow I won’t be.”
Incredible! Santa seemed to be warming up to Gish gallop. Time to wrap this up.
“Anyway bloke. It’s getting late. Shouldn’t you be flying toward the West by now? Time zones and all that. You’re what?! You’re not flying!? Oh?
As 2022 got under way Australians were getting used to the idea of a third COVID-19 vaccination and the possibility that the year just might unfold without lockdowns. An endangered economy needed attention. Some began to talk of a “post-COVID” way of living.
Anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists however, were having nothing to do with a post-COVID anything. The pandemic and its consequent lockdowns had given them a reason to refine their identity and fool themselves into assuming a new sense of purpose. They were the self-appointed keepers of freedom. Indeed they had convinced themselves they were freedom fighters, perhaps based on a propensity for conflict at anti-lockdown protests during 2021.
Yet, with the probability 2022 would have scant regard for their well rehearsed narrative, they were faced with a new conflict: the impending likelihood of increasing irrelevance. This gave the (by then) heartily amused and bemused population Down Under the spectacle of the Convoy To Canberra. Inspired by the Canadian anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine mandate Freedom Convoy, the gathering of a reported 10,000 protestors in Canberra [2] was reported by anti-vaxxers on the Australian Vaccination-risks Network Vaxxed bus to be one million, and shortly after 1.8 million in strength.
The Canberra gathering was also populated by religious fundamentalists, sovereign-citizens, self-appointed indigenous activists and those drawn to the United Australia Party. Rather than organise into a coherent group and work toward realistic goals, the event became a shambles where infighting, conspiracy theory ranting, exploitation and violence was the norm. In January, GoFundMe froze A$160,000 in funds raised for the event due to obscurity over how it would be spent, requesting the organiser identify themselves. In February GoFundMe refunded A$179,000 to donors, citing violation of terms of service. Social media accounts organising this and other events, were reported to be based in Bangladesh, India and Canada. Australians had donated almost A$50,000 to the Canadian Freedom Convoy.
Other cookers remained in unhygienic camps in Canberra, regularly posting videos of their unhealthy plight. They warned the vaccinated of impending doom thanks to circulating COVID vaccine ingredients, and even promised boosters would cause a positive test result for HIV/AIDS. In early March the AVN filed their case against Brendan Murphy and the TGA with the Federal Court of Australia. They of course wanted money. Shortly after, sensible Australians were unmoved to learn that the AVN Vaxxed bus had been seriously damaged in the NSW floods. It was a write off. They of course wanted money. Around the same time dual Bent Spoon winner Pete Evans, joined a social media conga line of cookers citing this study, to claim “mRNA could alter human DNA”, even quoting from the paper whilst adding his own caps lock to warn that it “may potentially mediate GENOTOXIC SIDE EFFECTS”. But er, no.
The floods revealed some of the conduct of cooker and anti-vaxxer Dave Oneegs, and his intentions in founding the group Aussie Helping Hands (AHH). Crikey reported in mid March that questions were being asked relating to legitimacy. Following obvious deception, false advertising and exploitation of distribution centres, the Office of Fair Trading QLD, the Department of Fair Trading NSW and NSW Police began investigations. $330,000 had been raised and Oneegs bank account was frozen. The same applied to one Dorothy “Dotti” Janssen. In a video, Oneegs alludes to a conspiracy, labelling his plight “a precedent [to] the social credit system which is coming if Australians don’t wake up”. The Northern Rivers Times published an in depth piece on 19 May (Ed. 97, p.6) looking at the players behind AHH including Hayley Birtles-Eades. It is a damning assessment of AHH. Vaxatious Litigant (@ExposingNV) posted an interesting Twitter thread on the matter yesterday, as Oneegs is due in court next month.
Oneegs still pleads innocence
The suave George Christensen was impossible to miss when he animated the zombie antivax myth that relies on the base rate fallacy: highly vaccinated populations have increased cases in those vaccinated. George went as far as claiming a conspiracy between “power elites and the media” was in play. I’ve looked at that fallacy here before and fact checkers have patiently explained time and again just why it is a non-event. However this graphic, tweeted by @MarcRummy, is one of the best I’ve seen that quickly and clearly reveals the fallacy. Of course, reporting of fatalities never stopped as George had claimed. Rather, they were never there. Also never there, were the serious adverse reactions to the Pfizer mRNA vaccine that led Craig Kelly to tweet:
Adverse effects, what adverse effects
Disgusting, nasty🤡🤡who just blindly peddle the PROPAGANDA have blood on their hands
The Pfizer report was also used by Senator Gerard Rennick to spook Australians with respect to vaccine safety. The problem with their approach goes deeper than Kelly’s unfortunate citation of Children’s Health Defense. Just like VAERS and the UK Yellow Card reporting system the Pfizer document relies on passive reporting. Causally speaking the data are unverified. However, again like VAERS and the UK Yellow Card system, the reports will be taken seriously and followed up if events occur more frequently than before the vaccine was distributed. As if on cue to reinforce this point came the absurd claims of Japanese Encephalitis actually being a side effect of the Pfizer vaccine (see p.32 for original).
In late March the AVN and fellow plaintiff Mr. Mark Neugebauer were found in the Federal Court of Australia to lack legal standing necessary to bring their case against the Department of Health to cease COVID-19 vaccination of Australians. Neither satisfied the requirement of being a “person aggrieved”. Delightfully, Justice Perry found that Meryl Dorey’s evidence contending the AVN “is the peak vaccine organisation in Australia”, is “recognised as a leader” by other similar groups and “is a leading source of information in respect of vaccination”, could be accepted only as a belief held by Dorey. Now is not the time to dig into Dorey’s “evidence”. Suffice it to say this wasn’t just a neat legal description from Justice Perry as to why she would not accept Dorey’s evidence as legal evidence. Perry rightfully considered section 136 of the Evidence Act as requested by the respondent. As one might expect the Act is clear in that a) one cannot simply use opinion or belief as evidence, particularly when b) it is prejudicial and/or misleading.
Nasty tricks continued to target the notion of being vaccinated. A version of this video doctored with captions contended that the QLD CHO was discussing fatalities from myocarditis brought on by vaccination against COVID-19. Yet seen in full context the discussion between himself and a reporter is about deaths at home from COVID-19. One of the lowest COVID conspiracy tricks pulled by Australian politicians related to Malcolm Roberts presenting so-called results from an event titled “Covid Under Question”. His speech to the Senate accused government bodies of hiding deaths and injuries caused by the COVID vaccine rollout. Roberts claimed a “cross-party inquiry” had produced the results. In fact it was a gathering of predictable COVID conspiracy identities. RMIT Fact Check reported:
Notably, it was not a parliamentary inquiry, despite being attended by six state and federal parliamentarians from One Nation, the United Australia Party and the Coalition, including George Christensen, Craig Kelly, Senator Alex Antic and Senator Gerard Rennick.
Among those giving evidence was Dr Peter McCullogh, who has wildly claimed that the pandemic was planned, that COVID-19 infection confers “permanent immunity” and that a Queensland vaccine trial “turned everybody in the trial HIV positive”.
It also featured at least one member of the World Council for Health, a group whose claims about vaccine harms have been debunked by AAP Fact Check, with one expert describing their evidence as a “garbled mixture of misinformation”.
And, of course, unproven COVID-19 treatments received plenty of airtime, with the event featuring, in the words of PolitiFact, “one of the strongestadvocates of ivermectin in the US”.
There was of course a federal election campaign underway. Clive Palmer’s National Press Club address was so dishonest he earned his own Fact Check cheatsheet. This included that very tired misrepresentation of TGA data on COVID-19 vaccination that he and Craig Kelly had begun in 2021. The pandemic had squeezed out a veritable host of overly ambitious parties and candidates working toward their dream of political dominion. It would take Tom Tanuki to so neatly sum up this bevy of Cooked Candidates and Shit Minor Parties. Around election time in Australia, 2022 got the pox. Or rather, monkeypox. All those freshly primed and pumped anti-vaxxers must have been delirious. Well, more delirious than usual, as they swiftly adjusted their narrative to accomodate a cut and paste for monkeypox. We had VAIDS, which although non-existent apparently meant “vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome”. Interestingly one suggestion was that the COVID-19 vaccine was a tool of the global elite in their quest for world dominion. Not long after Malcolm Roberts tweeted this nonsense about WHO Health Regulations.
UPDATE: The WHO has quietly pulled the amendments to International Health Regulations that would have decimated sovereignty.
They will be back to try it another way, we will continue to monitor and defend against foreign incursions to our way of life. https://t.co/8leWekjcLG
Not only is there no evidence anything was “quietly pulled”, the WHO has no influence on domestic health policy. Public health emergencies of international concern would see the WHO develop and recommend health initiatives. About this time the AVN returned to the Federal Court to hear that it was liable for costs sustained by the Department of Health in the earlier case. The AVN had argued their action was “public interest litigation” and as such costs should be waived. This was rejected. Costs further included those incurred in the dispute of costs and also any costs arising from their application to join with Mr. Neugebauer. The AVN had already received generous donations, with most via GiveSendGo. Rather than settle they continued to make ludicrous claims to members, purporting to have “evidence from some of the most esteemed medical and scientific experts in the world”. They filed to appeal. By now, thanks to insurance and donations, the group also had the ghastly Vaxxed bus back on the road, exploiting vulnerable Australians to peddle the myth of large scale vaccine injuries.
One day after the TGA provisionally approved the Moderna vaccine for children aged six months to five years antivaxxers blamed it for the death of a toddler at a QLD childcare centre. Despite the fact there is significant time between approval and availability, misleading social media posts falsely described the toddler as “fully jabbed”. In fact the importance of COVID-19 vaccination for all ages was brought home days later when toddler Ruby Edwards died after contracting the disease. It triggered Acute Hemorrhagic Leukoencephalitis following inflammation in her brain and spinal cord.
As COVID-19 reinfections gradually increased the anti-vax lobby happily explained the cause via mere temporal correlation. It was the devastation of immune systems caused by COVID-19 vaccines they claimed. This was debunked at the time and a recent study from Denmark confirms effectiveness of vaccination against reinfection with COVID-19, albeit less so with respect to the Omicron variant. Then came the social media claim that a fertility specialist at Brisbane’s Mater hospital had “collected data showing 74% miscarriage post inject (sic)”. Even worse “In an attempt to silence him he was fired last Friday!!”. However the doctor hadn’t worked there for nine months and hospital records gave no indication of such an increase. A spokeswoman for Mater Health responded to queries:
Mater has not observed any change in the rate of miscarriage over the last five years or specifically since the introduction of COVID-19 vaccinations.
Victorian CHO Brett Sutton was accused of admitting COVID-19 vaccination was ineffective, following comparison of two video outtakes. It was a popular trick amongst conspiracy theorists and relied upon comparing health reports specific to different Omicron variants. The dominant strain in Victoria in April was BA.2. By August it was BA.4 and BA.5. Sutton had observed the vaccines were less effective at preventing infection with the latter strains. August also brought the appeal hearing for AVN v Secretary Dept. of Health. Three judges dismissed the appeal as incompetent and ordered the AVN to pay costs. One might suspect that the AVN would get the message. No. On 31 October AVN advised of their intention to pursue further action. Just before Christmas Meryl Dorey announced a refined “babies case” would be filed with the High Court of Australia. They of course want more money and this case has its own GiveSendGo page.
The cooker community continued to fascinate throughout the year. One bemusing feature was the badgering of New Zealand and Australian Governors General by supporters of rabid paedophile conspiracy theorist Karen Brewer. Standing at the G.G. residence gate, and reading from a script they would bellow through a bullhorn that all federal and state parliaments must be dissolved, as they have “lost confidence in the government”. New elections must be held and “all the documents Senator Heffernan produced for royal commission” must be released “unredacted” immediately. This refers to Heffernan’s 2015 speech, which cookers use to help justify the conspiracy theory that the elite run an international paedophile ring. Despite its absurdity this belief is common amongst the “cooker community”. Just to complicate things other cookers, such as retired QANTAS pilot Graham Hood reject it outright, adding to the angst and infighting. For a sample of cooker infighting I heartily recommend this video.
The year trundled into the latter months with a distinct feeling that those intent on spreading COVID-19 misinformation as a means to profit, had in many cases succeeded but had spent the year waning in popularity. Still, this meant many thousands of Australians – and millions of others around the world – remained in echo chambers of misinformation. Monkeypox was now caused by AstraZeneca of course, because it contained a chimpanzee adenovirus. A bogus claim that Robert F. Kennedy had won a US Supreme Court case against pharmaceutical lobbyists, and in doing so confirmed mRNA vaccines cause irreparable damage was denied by Kennedy himself. Australian deaths in 2022 slightly increased, bringing more claims the cause was COVID-19 vaccination. “SHAME. DISGUSTING. CRIMINAL.”, tweeted the almost forgotten Craig Kelly. Meryl Dorey drew a debunking from AAP Fact Check for this very lie. Yet in October the TGA had still reported a pandemic total of only 14 deaths linked to COVID-19 vaccination. Thirteen followed one dose of AstraZeneca. Those figures are unchanged as of today.
Fortunately 5G is unable to manipulate our DNA via graphene oxide injected with COVID-19 vaccines. Nor is graphene oxide destroying our immune systems. It is not a component of the vaccines, or masks, or PCR tests and thus, thankfully won’t be controlled by “electromagnetic 5G sensors”. More to the point such a concept is utter rubbish. One had to feel a little sorry for fact-checkers dutifully refuting this piffle. Social media accounts spreading disinformation had continued to close. Meryl Dorey’s AVN Facebook page, widely known for disinformation, was finally unpublished and her Twitter account, @nocompulsoryvac followed soon after. Monica Smit spent the year fumbling to recreate her prior influence. Time was spent fighting charges brought against her in 2021, reinventing herself and refuting vaccine requirements. Incitement charges were dropped in July and Smit now claims she intends to sue Victoria police. Some good news was that Avi Yemini was denied a Victorian parliamentary press pass and people still mock him.
Malcolm Roberts has continued to work hard all year to ensure his position as an outspoken authority on COVID-19 is the same as his position as an authority on climate change. One tweet which cited Natural News reminded me of the awfully deceptive film Died Suddenly. This was released in an attempt to spread the myth that vast numbers are dropping dead because of the COVID-19 vaccine. A collection of out of context clips and headlines uploaded by rabid conspiracy theorist Stew Peters, it pushes the depopulation theory and has been thoroughly debunked. It relies on decontextualisation to lull the viewer to not consider alternative causes for the images of blood clots and collapsing people. On a sad note it has contributed to the trolling of those who have lost a loved one to sudden death, regardless of the cause.
On the topic of consequences however, Australians were shocked when Nathaniel, Gareth and Stacey Train murdered two young police officers and a neighbour almost certainly as a result of their involvement with, and conduct as, online conspiracy theorists. Their lifestyle indicated they’d chosen to live isolated, and had internalised paranoid beliefs about government intentions. Gareth Train had contributed to different forums where conspiracy theories and sovereign citizen ideology thrive. The pandemic with its consequent restrictions and mandates likely exacerbated his thinking, but Train was no newbie. Click through the sample below:
Unsurprisingly there was sympathetic chatter amongst conspiracy theorists online, some of which occurred on (dodgy flood money guy) Dave Oneegs’ Telegram page. Dave has a long history of believing lockdowns signalled that Australia will be “taken over”. Elsewhere, articles have appeared questioning every reported aspect of the shooting. Why was a welfare check run on a missing person? Why send regular cops? Why not sit and wait it out? Why, why, etc, etc. In short this event is now a conspiracy theory for conspiracy theorists. Sympathisers wanted to identify with the Trains claiming, “he was definitely one of us” and that it was “time to rise up”. A tweeted reply to a well known activist was chilling in its ignorance. “Wearing that title with pride now, look what we can do. Smoked to (sic) 2 pigs. It’s too easy. while you snooze… normie”. If this event has taught us anything it can not only be how a small minority might act. We must accept how a much larger minority is prepared to think and converse and provoke. That is where the problem lives.
As Australia moves into the fourth year of this pandemic we can predict that the enemies of reason and those who profit from disinformation, will ensure plenty of losing in the lucky country. Only a few have been mentioned above. Yet living in this wealthy country at this time in civilisation’s history is still a case of winning the lottery. COVID-19 infections are presently surging and we’re yet to see what strains, if any, will arise from the situation in China. We’ve learnt much about coping with pandemic conditions. 2023 can’t do much more than demand we continue to put that knowledge into practice. Similarly we’ve learnt much more about evidence denial and those that rely on it. 2023 will be an opportunity to immunise against non-critical thinking and to further identify, refute and annoy those who seek to promote it.
The COVID-19 vaccine is in fact an experimental medical procedure and because of this insurance companies have made void any claims relating to this “vaccine”.
The experimental trial in Australia runs until 2023 and thus it is only available due to an emergency use clause. Insurance companies are linking adverse reactions and deaths to this trial. As companies won’t pay out for injury and death due to experimental treatment it follows that such events following COVID-19 vaccination are not covered by hospital or life insurance.
Not a word of the above is true. Yet this notion is circulating on social media in the usual and predictable places. Despite it being demonstrably false and something one can refute for themselves in a few minutes, it is a notion with active supporters. Many others go further and contend that consent has not been given to be part of this experiment. Thus a breach of the Nuremberg Code is happening right before us.
Ethically relevant but not legally enforceable the Nuremberg Code remains semantically powerful. As such it is regrettably abused by anti-vaccine activists who have for years peddled the false claim that vaccines are not tested for safety and efficacy. It just so happens that global scrutiny of the development of COVID-19 vaccines also provided firm evidence of Phase III trials. This again refutes the anti-vaccine position and I touched on this last September. Yet as antivaccinationists are apt to do the facts have been twisted into falsehoods to support ongoing attacks on the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and to boost claims of further breaches of the Nuremberg Code.
Now, whilst this post isn’t focusing on Meryl Dorey and the Australian Vaccination-risks Network, it just so happens that she can assist us. On March 13th during an error-packed Under The Wire, Dorey presented a detailed performance outlining the absurdities that constitute the Nuremberg Code fallacy specific to COVID-19 immunisation. You may download the MP3 here, or listen below.
All of the points above popped up today in a thread on a COVID freedom fighter’s Facebook page. Elle Salzone is a feverishly active defender of anti-science beliefs. Elle moves from business to business, scheme to scheme and presently pushes ClearPHONE. Salzone and buddies sell the phone, claiming it provides the privacy necessary for today’s freedom fighters. How reliable a service it provides is uncertain. Elle fights with and also films police over her refusal to wear masks or remain in quarantine when necessary. But that’s okay if you decide to be a Sovereign Citizen. Elle is anti-COVID related responsibility. You can peruse her page for details on these pursuits.
Today one of her posts [Update: quietly deleted on 8 April] was screenshot by a tireless defender of reason, and thus came to my attention. It turned out to be an obvious forgery from this Allianz Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and could be promptly demonstrated as such. The slideshow below is of the Allianz forgery and the two original parts of the document that were used in making it.
Salzone posts the forgery and states;
THIS IS EXTREMELY CONCERNING!!!!
Imagine getting the experimental shot thinking you’re protecting your health, then getting seriously injured and having no private health cover to help you and not being to sue because all vaccine manufacturers have been indemnified…
All to maybe protect you for a virus with a 99% Survival rate..
You literally can’t make this shit up..
“You literally can’t make this shit up”. In fact you can and in this case someone literally did. A quick search yielded the document in question. Even before presenting the original, un-cropped and pre-defaced, pages the text itself was screaming forgery. Insurance companies do not tend to torment font in that fashion. Apart from the caps lock, no policy section is referenced. Then there is the sneer at “vaccine” and the impossible consent self-infliction. Ouch! Finally at risk of boring you there’s that nagging bit about posting this most important development in the glossary.
Suffice it to say the above points were mentioned and a discussion took place.
Verified by multiple sources eh? The original source was “easily found” (comment now deleted) but Elle couldn’t find it. So screenshots of the original source were provided along with a link.
This resulted in an admission that it was posted in the knowledge it was a fake. Apparently however the information it conveyed is not only true but would be confirmed by Allianz if I checked;
For the record this forgery consists of four different screenshots from the original document pasted in a sequence that creates a misleading ‘preamble’ aiming to justify the bogus claims made beneath in added red font. The added text further presents existing terms from the Allianz PDS to construct a fraudulent disclosure statement. A significant amount of time and forethought has gone into this. It is a calculated work of disinformation that has succeeded in misleading vulnerable recipients of its message. The preparation date of the current Allianz Life Plan PDS is 5 march 2021. The date in the forgery is 31 July 2020, suggesting it could have been in circulation for some time.
Perhaps the most important aspect to look at is the claim that COVID-19 vaccines are part of an experimental “medical procedure”. This is frequently peddled by anti-vaccine activists and was also pushed by Meryl Dorey in the audio above. It is linked to other claims that the vaccine is not actually a vaccine. One contention is that mRNA vaccines are DNA modifying agents. Another is that viral vector vaccines [CDC] are completely experimental and also alter DNA. Despite available data on the molecular action, development, safety and efficacy of Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines, antivaccinationists ignore this in favour of a conspiracy theory.
Viral vector vaccines are well understood due to decades of research and do not alter DNA. mRNA vaccines are also well understood and are incapable of altering DNA. The claim that COVID-19 vaccination is an experiment is often presented with the contention that the experiment will go on until 2023. Like all persistent falsehoods this has an element of fact to it. The reality is that in Australia both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines have provisional approval from the TGA. The approval is valid for two years and the AstraZeneca vaccine will require review in February 2023. On 16 February 2021 the TGA stated;
The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has granted provisional approval to AstraZeneca Pty Ltd for its COVID-19 vaccine, making it the second COVID-19 vaccine to receive regulatory approval in Australia.
COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is provisionally approved and included in the Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods (ARTG) for the active immunisation of individuals 18 years and older for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2. […]
Provisional approval of this vaccine is valid for two years and means it can now be legally supplied in Australia. The approval is subject to certain strict conditions, such as the requirement for AstraZeneca to continue providing information to the TGA on longer term efficacy and safety from ongoing clinical trials and post-market assessment.
Reading the final paragraph above we can see also how the claim that data is still being collected for the experimental trial is peddled around with such confidence. Yet post-market assessment is a vital part to better understand all drugs and vaccines. There’s no trial, no experiment. It’s worth noting this fallacy is at times linked to another false claim. That of emergency use provision for the vaccine. This was a contention made by one Clive Palmer, deconstructed handsomely here by ABC corona check. Palmer has not alleged the COVID-19 vaccine rollout is an experimental medical procedure. Although he has pushed fear over the absence of one, three and five year safety data.
When it comes to hospital cover, insurance companies will not cover treatments for which no Medicare Benefits are payable. This includes cosmetic surgery, experimental treatments or experimental pharmaceuticals. Medicare will cover certain clinical research studies. For insurers if the device, trial or treatment is not recognised by Medicare or the Medical Services Advisory Committee it will be excluded from standard hospital cover. Still, there is insurance and indemnity available for clinical trials. This helps us understand why the term being used to misrepresent the COVID-19 vaccine is “experimental”.
Allianz also have a strong supportive position on the COVID-19 vaccine and like Bupa offer a comprehensive series of answers to possible questions. In a May 2020 article Allianz cover in depth the importance of research in developing a COVID-19 vaccine and the role of insurance for subjects in clinical trials. This is not what we would expect from a company that would deny insurance cover for adverse reactions post COVID-19 vaccine. Thus the claim by Salzone that refusal to cover is “verified by multiple sources”, in conjunction with the initial and consequent screenshot, appears to be disinformation. Insurance companies across Australia cover illnesses requiring hospitalisation following vaccination.
This leaves the obsession with claiming a 99% recovery rate as some type of stamp of insignificance. It is a rather tired trope having emerged about a year ago. This may also be linked to the frankly appalling claim that people die “with COVID, not of COVID”. Thus fatalities are incorrectly labelled an overestimation. Given this is pushed often by those who falsely insist vaccines kill and injure on a large scale it reflects a rather bizarre lack of compassion. As pointed out by USA Today the COVID-19 fatality rate is ten times that of influenza. More so it may be a serious diagnosis depending on age and health. To this we must add the emerging problems of ‘long haul’ symptoms perhaps in as many as 32% of those who have recovered from COVID-19.
In an interesting twist it was another wannabe COVID conspiracy-freedom-fighter who provided confirmation from Bupa that adverse reactions requiring hospitalisation are covered if their policy covers the treatment provided. It’s a bit of a story so another slide show is needed.
In the first image we see Bupa’s reply to anti-vaccine activist and COVID conspiracy theorist Matt Lawson, on social media. It outlines quite clearly that treatment covered by policy is available for adverse reactions post COVID-19 vaccination. In the next we see Lawson has engaged in a chat with ‘Cheryl’ from Bupa and presented this to Bupa on Instagram to challenge the prior response. The last screenshot was uploaded by Elle Salzone in the thread we’re discussing as another example of an insurance company denying cover to injury or reaction after COVID-19 vaccination.
Yet viewed in context we can see that during the chat Lawson supplied his policy number (image 3). So ‘Cheryl’ was answering in a specific sense, relative to his policy. This is absolutely in line with the claim made by Bupa in image 1 and also with feedback I’ve received from Bupa Australia. Still, image 2 reveals Lawson’s ill-informed, provocative reaction. The theme of acting with aggressive predetermined agendas is ingrained in the new age COVID conspiracy theorists. Matt Lawson reveals his conspiracy theory thinking when he writes;
Do you cover injuries caused by the convid19 experimental biological injection or not?
This comprehensive article reveals Bupa’s support for the COVID-19 vaccine and is in line with the position of global health authorities. There is no suggestion Bupa view the vaccine as experimental. Quite the opposite.
The letter mentioned in Lawson’s Instagram chat with Bupa Australia is circulating in social media within Australia. Within the Elle Salzone’s Facebook thread the image was uploaded twice, in support of the Allianz forgery. One commenter stated, “Another example shared of a void policy”. The second observed, “I think Bupa were one of the first…”. The image is below.
The text is as follows;
23 March 2021
Dear [redacted]
Thank you for speaking to me.
I confirm that side effects arising from the COVID-19 vaccine are not covered under our exclusion for: Complications from excluded or restricted conditions/treatment and experimental treatment exclusion.
If you are injured whilst doing COVID-19 swab yourself, cover would be available towards the injury.
I hope this information is helpful. If there is anything else we can help you with, please call our team on the above helpline number.
Yours sincerely
[signature]
Even if genuine, this letter has no impact on Australians. Peering at the Bupa letterhead we can confirm it is from Bupa Place in Salford Quays, Manchester U.K. Anti-vaccination activists will contend that the first paragraph confirms that side effects and complications from the COVID-19 vaccine are excluded from cover because it is an experimental treatment. The second paragraph conveys that insurance cover is available if one is injured, “whilst doing COVID-19 swab yourself”. In the U.K. home test kits are available.
Australians can also dismiss this as here it is illegal to advertise testing kits for serious infectious diseases. The TGA have a very clear warning to consumers and advertisers on their website. Thus there is no reason for Bupa to even consider such cover in Australia and Bupa members can disregard the letter and its claims.
Still, anti-vaccine claims are global in their reach, as is social media. If we take a cautious and in depth look into the origins of this letter there are different possible conclusions. It is a poorly written fake or a badly written follow up with a customer. Neither confirm the claim of an uninsurable experimental vaccine.
Bupa U.K. explain excluded and restricted cover in this Bupa Membership Guide [Archived]. This document provides a likely source for the information that the author presents with notably poor grammar. The opening paragraph is difficult to grasp. It may be that English is not the author’s first language.
With respect to the terminology used in the letter, on page 35 of the U.K. Bupa Membership Guide we find;
Exclusion 7 Complications from excluded conditions, treatment and experimental treatment
We do not pay any treatment costs, including any increased treatment costs, you incur because of complications caused by a disease, illness, injury or treatment for which cover has been excluded or restricted from your membership. […]
We do not pay any treatment costs you incur because of any complications arising or resulting from experimental treatment that you receive or for any subsequent treatment you may need as a result of you undergoing any experimental treatment.
On page 38 we find under Exclusion 16 Experimental Drugs and Treatment, this paragraph;
Please also see ‘Complications from excluded conditions/treatment and experimental treatment’ […]
There we have it. The text could have been copied and pasted in an extremely poor customer follow up, and that’s it above. Or copied and cobbled together in a dodgy forgery. The antivaccinationist lie of an uninsurable experimental vaccine is quite vocal on social media in the U.K. Yet under the glare of fact it is a demonstrably pointless effort.
In the U.K. COVID-19 vaccine side effects are covered under the Vaccine Damage Payments Scheme, established in 1979. This provides no-fault compensation for Adverse Events Following Immunisation. It is possible that offering cover is not an option for insurance companies. Either way, side effects are not covered by Bupa U.K. So it may well be that treatment of complications is classified as restricted and/or excluded regarding hospital cover.
The most important point here is that the COVID-19 vaccine is not an experimental treatment. Yet this letter is being pushed in Australian anti-vaccine circles to contend insurance companies are of the view it is experimental. Whilst a bogus claim, the overall forgery scam is reinforcing that claim in COVID conspiracy circles.
Bupa Australia are aware of this letter and have taken the chance to assure those who ask (such as the argumentative Matt Lawson) that cover is certainly available. When I raised this specific issue I was informed by Bupa Australia;
Private health care in the UK and Australia can vary greatly. But rest assured that our members will be covered for any hospital admission following an adverse reaction to the COVID vaccine, as long as the service is included in their cover, and any waits have been served.
Ultimately all the anti-vaccine points put forward by Elle Salzone and others on her Facebook page are demonstrably false. A search for insurance cover and COVID-19 vaccine adverse events yields results from around the world, not just Australia. For example cover for AEFI after the COVID-19 vaccine is available in Singapore whilst there’s a WHO compensation fund for people in developing nations suffering side effects. In general, insurance companies are involved in many areas specific to the COVID-19 vaccines, including in China where they are looking to cover adverse reactions.
Sadly some Facebook visitors to Elle Salzone’s page, who take her word on trust, are absolutely convinced of the dark side as this reply to me, packed with five pieces of misinformation, confirms. [Note – this is not from Salzone but a vulnerable visitor].
Sigh. Still all hope is not lost. As the well-known phrase from the X Files reminds us:
On a rather recent January 13th the Australian Vaccination-risks Network announced its partial departure from Facebook. Only weekly videos of Meryl Dorey’s Under The Wire show and Facebook-live videos will continue.
By member email, and more fittingly by Facebook post, distraught followers and amused critics were confronted with this graphic and informed;
The AVN Committee has made the decision not to remain on Facebook where we are already shadow-banned and suppressed for sharing factual, referenced information on the harms and ineffectiveness inherent in our one-size-fits-all vaccination program. We cannot support a platform that is so blatant about silencing us and so many others.
Yes. There is a lot of wrong packed into that short paragraph. Perhaps the mid-section is the most compelling. This blog is one of many that counter so-called “factual, referenced information” from the AVN and the contention that vaccination programmes are harmful and ineffective. The “one-size-fits-all” anti-vaccine mantra has become standard in recent years, finding a place amongst CBS News’ 10 deadly myths about childhood vaccines. The US site Vaxopedia comprehensively addresses this claim.
This was pushed by Judy Wilyman in her 2015 PhD thesis. The term features on four pages and receives much attention as supposed support for her claim that genetic diversity renders immunisation programmes ineffective and dangerous. It also features on her website. This towering failure to grasp immunology rests upon her exploitation of a 70 year old quote from Sir Frank Macfarlane Burnet. I touched on this in 2012 and in the previous post referred to Wilyman’s most recent publication which again presents this contention. Australia’s National Immunisation Programme is not “one size fits all”. It is a diverse programme targetting specific needs.
Back to the paragraph of wrong. It finishes by stating the AVN can’t “support” Facebook because it is so blatant about “silencing” them and others. This is all very dramatic and as I will explore part of an attempt by the AVN to big-note themselves as a radical right wing threat to social media. One must remember that at no time in their history of “supporting” Facebook has the AVN page been temporarily suspended. It’s fascinating timing that whilst writing today I scrolled to a video announcing that Dorey has been suspended from the AVN Facebook page for 30 days. I’m unaware as to why and her most recent Under The Wire (UTW) videos remain on the page.
♦︎ Update 4 Feb. 2021 – see below.
AVN founder Meryl Dorey and president Aneeta Hafemeister have constantly peddled the line that they may be deplatformed at any time due to warnings from Facebook. In fact in a 31 May 2020 Facebook live video Hafemeister observed that Facebook got “snarky” because they had “shared about the [anti 5G] picnics”. So radical was this that she didn’t know if they’d get any more warnings. You may grab the MP3 here [300KB] or listen below.
Aneeta Hafemeister tells listeners AVN could be banned from Facebook, 7 1/2 months before they voluntarily leave… somewhat.
So this leaves us with the claim they were already “shadow banned and suppressed”. We can dispense with the claim of suppression immediately. The AVN has had nothing more than fact-checked posts to deal with. These are greyed out and state False Information: checked by independent fact-checkers, giving the reader pause before proceeding. The AVN once observed that such censoring revealed the importance of the information. Shadow banning involves quietly blocking posts or comments such that members aren’t aware of the ban. This hasn’t happened either. Although the claim being made seemed to be about notifications of posts. They claimed followers could not find them or see notifications.
I’m not sure how this was determined as some commenters confirmed they had the page marked and missed nothing. None agreed they were suddenly not being notified. The lie, as it turned out to be, was revealed the following Saturday when Dorey’s show attracted a larger than normal audience. To date there have been over 800 shares and over 500 comments. The next show managed 470 comments. A recent video by Hafemeister managed 300 shares and 424 comments. To top it off she talked about the spike in numbers visiting the AVN page. Topping that off is that live videos will include interviews from the Vaxxed II bus which can number several per day.
So. Why the pretence? Both Dorey and Hafemeister are unashamed conspiracy theorists and seemingly seek the attention presently given to right wing extremists. Having retained US citizenship, Dorey is a Trump devotee and proudly voted for him. I will stress they are not active extremists but do crave an anti-authoritarian image. In today’s social media environment that means wandering into areas of the far right. They are anti-government mainly in thought, sticking to large, safe gatherings and protesting against soft, even meaningless and imagined “suppression”. Like all anti-vaxxers COVID-19, 5G, lockdowns and then the COVID vaccines gave them the chance to play rebel and increase their following without facing up to the reality that they in turn were a means for others and not a solution.
They have both revelled in the thrill of being taken seriously whilst ignoring the inescapable adage that nothing is forever. From Hafemeister gushing about “We are not government property” painted on the Vaxxed II bus to Dorey’s frenetic rants about fascist dictators that I posted in The Hill We Die On, they have laid a rebellious veneer over the anti-vaccine reality. The opening slug of that post quoted Dorey as follows;
When the police were in Ballina and they were telling us we had to move… I called Aneeta who’s the president of the AVN and I explained to her what the situation was… and she said ‘this is the hill we die on’. And that’s what I think too. We can’t be pushed any further, we just can’t. [..] I did not move here to live in a dictatorship… I will live in a free country or I will die.
The audio of Dorey in the post contains far more intense pseudo-revolutionary, anti-government ranting than the above. Hafemeister’s live videos are filled with “we the people” rhetoric mocking government health policy. A rhetoric that consistently pushes the fallacy of a vaccine injury epidemic that the AVN works against “the system” to solve. In truth both these women are secure white upper middle class individuals with very comfortable, entitled, privileged lives. It’s this very privilege and comfort that allows them to invent and internalise huge problems that don’t exist. Their present lives are spent in elaborate role play.
This was confirmed a number of times during last year’s Vaxxed II bus tour. Despite promises to metaphorically storm the Bastille, and literally die or be free Dorey and Hafemeister meekly complied with requests to move their elaborate show elsewhere. Without exception. Without as much as a shaken fist. The promised revolution shrivelled to behind keyboard attacks on Lord Mayors, councillors and business owners who had dared “suppress” them. AVN members were and are constantly exploited in these endeavours. They are fed contact details of targets and often provided with a template response. Abusive tweets and sabotage of Facebook pages is the norm. Accepting that these responses are excessive is not something the AVN does.
All of this rhetoric, posturing and role playing helps us grasp why the AVN announced its departure from Facebook at the time they did and in the way they did. It was just over a week since the riot and breach of the US Capitol [Wikipedia]. Significant changes had occurred on Twitter and Facebook with Trump’s accounts being permanently suspended and his violent followers being banned. The right wing extremist and fascist hosting platform Parler had been dumped from app stores and deleted from Amazon. It has not yet returned. Much to their frustration the AVN was left happily unmolested. Even Dorey’s very pro Trump “they-stole-the-election” Twitter feed was untouched. When it comes to anti-authoritarianism they just ‘aint bad enough to be Zucked permanently. If they weren’t going to be pushed they could always jump. So they did.
It was the ideal time to leave. They could seize upon the energy following the banning of dangerous accounts and important identities. For bad ass anti-vax revolutionaries it isn’t just what you leave but where you go that matters. The AVN announcement offered a list of alternatives where they would set up shop. These were Telegram, Parler, Gab, MeWe, Brighteon Social and Twitter with videos being posted at YouTube, Brighteon, Bitchute and Rumble. Most of these groups will permit unchallenged falsehoods to be published as “news” and “fact” under the guise of “freedom of speech”. Compare this rubbish from AVN’s Gab page (vaccine kills 24) with the actual reports (COVID kills 24). One can plainly see why fact checking and mainstream media don’t fit their plans.
The AVN also mentioned in their email that Telegram was under threat of being deplatformed, but omitted the reason. Following Parler’s ban the encrypted messaging app had become the default platform for radical nationalists. Telegram channels had long been used by potentially violent elements. Telegram was under pressure to act and finally removed Neo-Nazi and extremist channels. The move was a no-brainer for Telegram which was gaining tens of millions of new users thanks to the confusion over WhatsApp’s upcoming changes to its privacy policy.
One wonders at the wisdom of six different social media platforms and four video sites. It’s excessive but these platforms offer the AVN more exposure, potentially more recruits and thus more members. They seem to be settling in to Telegram and Gab (using their past name Australian Vaccination Network), the latter accomodating large numbers of Trump supporters. Gab is similar to Parler in that it is a haven for right wing extremism and hate speech. It was dumped by GoDaddy in late October 2018 after a member was involved in a synagogue shooting. The domain was then registered by Epik. It has been reported that Gab now rents server hardware.
The AVN’s Twitter and Parler accounts are unique to the group whilst Meryl Dorey also has Parler, Twitter and Facebook accounts. These accounts provide insight into how genuine the move from Facebook may be. On 25 September 2020 on what is the AVN Twitter account they announced;
The AVN has just set up a page on [Brighteon]. If you can join us there, it means that we can actually leave Facebook and its censorship, far, far behind! Please share this link as widely as you can too. Show Zuckerberg hs is very replaceable! [Screenshot]
Then on 5 December 2020 Dorey announced (left) she was leaving her personal Facebook account for Parler. She was tired of “the censorship, the abuse from FaceBook itself and the constant fact-less checks”.
Meryl would no longer be posting or responding to anything on Facebook. However she was back in four weeks by 1 January 2021 – before Parler was deplatformed. Indeed a quick check confirms she was “responding” to another commenter on her page earlier today. The post to the left has been deleted.
Meryl Dorey is still the face of AVN and wears whatever colours seem to get the attention she desires. COVID-19 is a hoax, a ‘scamdemic’ perpetrated by governments to enable control of the population. Yet she is an adamant supporter of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 and those right wing commentators who claim it is being suppressed. Her Twitter profile (@nocompulsoryvac) features a photo of Donald Trump and she tweets and retweets in support of the notion the US election was stolen. She supports COVID conspiracist, Dr. Simone Gold and posts common themes of COVID misinformation. Some of her tweets are in the slide show below. The same themes featured in Parler in December 2020 and continue on the AVN’s current Twitter account and Dorey’s personal Facebook page. The image from Gab would have been promptly fact-checked on Facebook.
Deaths at Pemberley House have been reported as COVID-19 cases. No link to COVID vaccines.
By quitting Facebook with as much fanfare as possible the AVN can associate itself with genuine anti-government forces on social media. Aneeta Hafemeister and particularly Meryl Dorey can envelope themselves in a controversy that is not of their making and has zero to do with them. In time their narrative can bend to accomodate claims that they, and many others, were forced to leave Facebook at the time of the US Capitol riots. In the case of the AVN they will now claim they were forced to make the choice.
The reality is that the COVID-19 pandemic drew unforeseen attention and numbers to the anti-vax cause. Anti-vaccine media coverage increased by 900% from March to May 2020. It is highly unlikely anything like this will be repeated although it is also a wave with ongoing energy. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the Trump election fiasco and the US Capitol riot have continued to motivate a disparate conspiracy-loving demographic. Nonetheless the AVN had begun to witness a decrease in Facebook attendance which they blamed on supposed censorship.
Both Hafemeister and Dorey have easily embraced unrelated dynamics to fit their role play. The impetus for the changes in social media were unmistakably due to events that occurred in Washington D.C. and had the specific aim of restricting organised and potentially violent episodes on behalf of Donald Trump and his claim of election fraud. For Meryl Dorey however the issue was the need to be a source of vaccine and medical information. For both, it’s an opportunity to exploit AVN members and perhaps turn the events to their own profit.
In the audio outtakes below from UTW 16 January 2021 we hear Dorey open by telling viewers that;
Here in our bunker we are on a war footing and that is only a slight overstatement because actually the entire world of social media, most governments and certainly the medical community and the media are at war with the truth. So we are your home at the present time, while we’re allowed to be, for the truth about vaccines and medical practices that you need to be aware of.
Yes, indeed.
Nonetheless, it’s now time to say goodbye from the bunker. You can download the MP3 here [1.5MB] or listen below to farewell AVN’s Facebook days… sort of.
An unedited 5 1/2 min from the opening is available here [4.6MB] for those interested in the unblemished truth from which the outtakes above are taken. It does offer insight into how Meryl tries to convince members to cancel any Amazon subscriptions, as she did, because she can’t abide censorship. She’s not going to tell them what to do but if they’re Amazon subscribers they might want to consider doing the same sort of thing. Subtle.
One awaits further AVN social media developments with interest.
♦︎ 8:00 PM 4 February 2021: AVN publish newsletter stating the 30 day ban was due to the most recent UTW episode of 30 January 2021 which is still available on the Facebook page.
Last week AstraZeneca announced demonstrated varying efficacy in two different dosing regimens of its candidate COVID-19 vaccine, AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCOV-19).
In a November 23rd press release [PDF] the company announced efficacy of 90% when AZD1222 was given as a half dose and followed by a full dose at least one month later. This sample group had 2,741 subjects. Vaccine efficacy of 62% was evident when two full doses of AZD1222 were given at least one month apart. This was observed in a sample group of 8,895. They also announced a “combined efficacy” averaging 70% in a sample of 11,636.
Problems emerge
Whilst this sounded like a positive outcome it soon became apparent that the Oxford-AstraZeneca team still had hurdles to clear. It emerged later that the dose regimen yielding efficacy of 90% was given by mistake. This wasn’t made clear in the press release. The first dose should have been a full dose but due to a “manufacturing issue” only half of the expected dose was given. Regulators were told at the time and agreed the trial could continue with the immunisation of more volunteers. It is problematic that the trial wasn’t designed to test this regimen and less than 3,000 subjects aged 55 or less were involved. In order to validate the results another study examining the efficacy of the regimen will take place.
The other problem was the notion of “combined efficacy”. These data come from two different trials with different dosing regimens. One trial arm in the UK began in May. The Brazilian trial arm began in late June. So this information has not come from a single large Phase III trial as was the case with Pfizer and Moderna. Averaging efficacy from two different trials to yield “combined efficacy” of 70% is not acceptable. This doesn’t provide a sound assessment of what level of efficacy, or regimen, the public can expect. So again, further trials are needed. Also press release is not the vehicle to present scientific information and the AstraZeneca issue is an example of how problematic this can be. Study specifics that have been peer reviewed carry far more weight.
Media coverage
Which raises a point made by Norman Swan on today’s Coronacast that rumours are circulating, apparently with very little confirmation, that suggest Oxford-AstraZeneca are rushing to publish. He referred to a Financial times article which reported on Saturday;
Regulators and the rest of the world will soon have the full data. The Oxford academics who developed the vaccine have submitted a paper setting out their full Phase 3 results to The Lancet medical journal. They will be working over the weekend to answer questions from the journal and its referees and the article could be published as early as Thursday [UK time].
Concern and criticism about transparency and trust has been raised, particularly in the USA. Natalie E. Dean, assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida posted a series of tweets on November 25th. Apart from transparency, concern about scientific rigour was raised. Her tweets included;
AstraZeneca/Oxford get a poor grade for transparency and rigor when it comes to the vaccine trial results they have reported. This is not like Pfizer or Moderna where we had the protocols in advance and a pre-specified primary analysis was reported.
The point about protocols in advance, along with the fact that AstraZeneca was one of nine vaccine makers to sign a scientific rigour pledge in September was raised in a highly critical article by Hilda Bastian writing in Wired. The article goes into the Phase III trial arms in depth and the manner in which Oxford-AstraZeneca has deviated from their trial protocol. Comparisons are made to the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine at 90% efficacy and the Moderna vaccine at almost 95% efficacy. Bastian certainly casts them in a positive light. These two companies use messenger-RNA as the vector in their COVID-19 vaccines. Oxford-AstraZeneca use an adenovirus vector in their vaccine. How variously each approach effects COVID-19 vaccine efficacy is presently unknown. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccine results were also made public by press release.
It’s important to note that the FDA has argued a vaccine must be at least 50% effective to be useful in combating the pandemic. Whilst concern has been raised about the AstraZeneca situation it is over efficacy and not safety. The fact that regulators will accept an efficacy of at least 50% was noted by Mene Pangalos, AstraZeneca’s executive vice president for research, who dismissed concerns. AstraZeneca also want to alter the specifics of the US trial under the auspices of Operation Warp Speed. The aim is to change the two full dose regimen to a half dose, full dose regimen.
Certainly further successful trials are well within AstraZenecas grasp. The BMJ recently published COVID-19 vaccines: where are the data? The article examines the position of the three recent candidate vaccines and what is expected through peer-reviewed publication. The UK government has asked the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency to evaluate authorising supply of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
The cold chain needs of each vaccine vary. The Pfizer candidate requires storage at -70 degrees Celsius. This alone provides a challenge difficult to meet in developed nations and impossible in nations without significant infrastructure. Moderna’s candidate vaccine can be stored at -20 degrees Celsius meeting most pharmacy and hospital freezer temperatures but providing transport challenges for developing nations. Moderna claims that after thawing the vaccine will remain stable for up to 30 days at 2 – 8 degrees Celsius. AstraZenecas candidate can be stored in a normal refrigerator at 2 – 8 degrees Celsius and thus meets conditions in present healthcare settings and realistic options in developing nations. A successful outcome for Oxford-AstraZeneca is significant for the management of a global pandemic.
And remember, this is a vaccine that they promised not to make profits out of, that is cheap and they are committed to giving very large doses, I think something enormous like a third of the world’s doses of vaccines are relying on AstraZeneca. So there’s a lot riding on this vaccine.
Anti-vaccination lobby
The anti-vaccination community have taken the challenges faced by AstraZeneca as more evidence Big Pharma is always up to no good. A recent AVN Facebook post observed that maybe it wasn’t a good idea to let drug companies release their own study information without independent oversight.
So again we might consult the press release. It includes (para 3);
An independent Data Safety Monitoring Board determined that the analysis met its primary endpoint showing protection from COVID-19 occurring 14 days or more after receiving two doses of the vaccine. No serious safety events related to the vaccine have been confirmed. AZD1222 was well tolerated across both dosing regimens.
Our Directors are collectively responsible for the success of AstraZeneca. In addition, the Non-Executive Directors are responsible for exercising independent and objective judgement and for scrutinising and challenging management.
Quickly scattering the seeds of disinformation in this manner is what the AVN always do. One expects this manipulation of their members. What I’m more interested in is the inability of the group to acknowledge that the focus on COVID-19 vaccine development has revealed a number of long standing claims to be false. In September I posted on how the Oxford-AstraZeneca trial pause alone refuted long standing anti-vaccine claims. Namely transparent mainstream media coverage and the documented process of Phase III trials. Despite the ample criticism of AstraZeneca’s handling of data the AVN are even further from defending their claims than they were in September.
As a quick reminder it is the claim that vaccine manufacturers do not assess the safety or efficacy of vaccines. Ever. Added to this is the strange insistence that a placebo must always be inert. Let’s revisit quotes promoting these errors. Given that the COVID-19 candidates are new vaccines the following quote published in a response to a journalist is particularly relevant. See Proposition 4;
…there have never been double-blind, placebo-controlled prospective studies done on either the safety or efficacy of vaccines, not even when a new vaccine is introduced.
This piece on HPV is highly misleading. Yet it’s the claim in the second paragraph under Safety In Question I find compelling;
By definition, a placebo must be a totally inert substance which will never provoke a response.
That definition might be fine for the “sugar pill” placebo. As in when we think of the “placebo effect”. Yet in vaccine trials it is more important to sustain the double blind nature of the trial. Simply put a subject must not know what group they are in. The AVN are anti-HPV vaccination. Gardasil trials have used the amorphous aluminium hydroxyphosphate sulphate adjuvant, or AAHS as placebo. This, unlike saline, produces an injection site effect like a genuine vaccine. Thus members of the placebo group and those administering the dose are unaware they have received or given the placebo. The randomised double blind nature of the trial is preserved.
Double blind randomised control trials are what Meryl Dorey, founder of the AVN calls “the gold standard” insisting they are ignored in vaccine research. The claim is part of the AVN Did You Know? leaflet. In this case demanding only inert placebos be used helps to both refute the value of trials and contend a heavy metal neurological injury is potentially caused by adjuvant placebos. The impact of this rhetoric can be seen below in an image of an interviewee on the Vaxxed II bus (27 Nov. 2020). Her T-Shirt has the words “gold standard science” and “inert saline placebos” amongst others written on it in Texta.
Finally as discussed in this article, by contending that no vaccine trials using saline placebos have ever been conducted the insistence that vaccines are primed to harm persists. It’s a simple no true Scotsman anti-vaccine fallacy. Also when saline is used as the placebo in an HPV vaccine trial, there really is nowhere to hide. Vaccine studies using saline placebos abound. Period.
As it happens saline has been used in the USA arm of the AstraZeneca Phase III trials. In other groups a meningococcal vaccine is given as placebo. This won’t only create an injection site effect but a general feeling in line with being vaccinated. Not being aware they are receiving a placebo ensures subjects don’t introduce an unexpected variable to the trial. This fact, and the ethical nature of the approach is discussed in a well written article here. Finally in establishing the safety of vaccines a more convincing and in depth picture is gained through the application of more than just placebo controlled studies.
Conclusion
The more we see of Phase III trials for COVID-19 candidates, whether they be immediately accepted or controversial, the greater the refutation of the above anti-vaccine tropes. Senior members of the AVN are reading material that describes Phase III trials and their testing of both safety and efficacy. The above claim that double blind, placebo controlled trials don’t exist, “even when a new vaccine is introduced” still exists on the AVN website and in discussion. In the bright light of facts this is a true measure of the group.
The Oxford-AstraZeneca AZD1222 results have been met, understandably, with specific criticism. This relates to efficacy only. Safety is not being questioned. Some media reports have hinted that AstraZeneca will have difficulty getting the vaccine regulated for emergency use in the USA based on present data. Further, larger studies are needed to establish the veracity of the 90% efficacy finding in the smaller sample given a half dose followed by a full dose. This is entirely within reach of AstraZeneca.
Given the unscientific notion of a “combined efficacy” of 70% it is within AstraZeneca’s interests to pursue further research. Indeed everything being equal one may hope that the “combined efficacy” rate is not reinforced with further research. As STAT reported;
If it’s 70%, then we’ve got a dilemma,” said Fauci. “Because what are you going to do with the 70% when you’ve got two [vaccines] that are 95%? Who are you going to give a vaccine like that to?
AstraZeneca’s AZD1222 vaccine has enormous potential. The low cost, cold chain specifics and the company’s offer to not profit from the vaccine meets a global imperative for pandemic recovery. What the scientific community and the public need to see is a large robust Phase III trial that reproduces efficacy in the region of 90%.
Making a list, 
and checking it twice 
, gonna find out 
Losing In The Lucky Country 